Sunday, May 19, 2013

TV Longevity Predictions

Now that the 2012-13 Renew / Cancel season is over, I will predict the longevity of all remaining (returning) shows.

Class of 2012-13:
Elementary- 5 seasons (2012-2017)
The Neighbors- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Nashville- 4 seasons (2012-2016)
The Taste- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Chicago Fire- 7 seasons (2012-2019)
Revolution- 2 seasons (2012-2013)
The Mindy Project- 2 seasons (2012-2013)
The Following- 6 seasons (2013-2018)
Beauty & The Beast- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Arrow- 5 seasons (2012-2017)
The Carrie Diaries- 2 seasons (2013-2013)

Class of 2011-12:
Two Broke Girls- 8 seasons (2011-2019)
Person of Interest- 8 seasons (2011-2019)
Last Man Standing- 4 seasons (2011-2015)
Suburgatory- 3 seasons (2011-2014)
Scandal- 9 seasons (2012-2020)
Once Upon a Time- 5 seasons (2011-2015)
Revenge- 4 seasons (2011-2015)
Grimm- 7 seasons (2011-2018)
New Girl- 6 seasons (2011-2017)
The X Factor- 3 seasons (2011-2013)
Hart of Dixie- 5 seasons (2011-2016)

Class of 2010-11:
Mike & Molly- 5 seasons (2010-2015)
Hawaii 5-0- 6 seasons (2010-2016)
Blue Bloods- 4 seasons (2010-2014)
The Voice- 10 seasons (2011-2016)
Raising Hope- 4 seasons (2010-2014)
Bob's Burgers- 8 seasons (2011-2018)
Nikita- 4 seasons (2010-2013)

Class of 2009-10:
NCIS: LA- 8 seasons (2009-2017)
The Good Wife- 5 seasons (2009-2014)
Undercover Boss- 6 seasons (2010-2015)
The Middle- 8 seasons (2009-2017)
Modern Family- 12 seasons (2009-2021)
Shark Tank- 10 seasons (2009-2019)
Community- 5 seasons (2009-2014)
Parenthood- 7 seasons (2009-2016)
The Sing Off- 4 seasons (2009-2013)
Glee- 6 seasons (2009-2015)
The Vampire Diaries- 10 seasons (2009-2019)

Class of 2008-09:
The Mentalist- 7 seasons (2008-2015)
Castle- 8 seasons (2009-2016)
Parks & Recreation- 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Class of 2007-08:
The Big Bang Theory- 16 seasons (2007-2023)

Class of 2006-07:
Already dead! (last survivor was Rules of Engagement)

Class of 2005-06:
How I Met Your Mother- 9 seasons (2005-2014)
Criminal Minds- 13 seasons (2005-2018)
Bones- 10 seasons (2005-2015)
Supernatural- 11 seasons (2005-2016)

Class of 2004-05:
Grey's Anatomy- 12 seasons (2004-2016)
Dancing With the Stars- 20 seasons (2005-2015)
The Biggest Loser- 18 seasons (2004-2016)
American Dad- 12 seasons (2005-2016)

Class of 2003-04:
Two and a Half Men- 12 seasons (2003-2015)
NCIS- 15 seasons (2003-2018)
The Apprentice- 14 seasons (2004-2014)

Class of 2002-03:
America's Next Top Model- 21 seasons (2003-2014)

Class of 2001-02:
The Amazing Race- 30 seasons (2001-2017)
The Bachelor- 22 seasons (2002-2018)
American Idol- 14 seasons (2002-2015)

Class of 2000-01:
CSI- 16 seasons (2000-2016)

Class of 1999-2000:
Survivor- 32 seasons (2000-2016)
Law & Order: SVU- 15 seasons (1999-2014)

Class of 1998-99:
Family Guy- 18 seasons (1999-2020)

CLASS OF 1989-90!!!!:
America's Funniest Home Videos- 30 seasons (1990-2020)
The Simpsons- 26 seasons (1989-2015)


Thursday, May 9, 2013

2013 TV Renewals and Cancellations

You will still see my official final predictions, but with the word "Renewed or Canceled" next to those shows that did not have their fates decided as of then.  I will also add shows to the renewal and cancellation lists.  I will update this page as necessary.  It is up to date as of Sunday, May 19.

OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Parks & Recreation
Community
Modern Family
Suburgatory
The Middle
The Neighbors
Last Man Standing

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI

Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
Criminal Minds
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Nashville
Once Upon a Time
Revenge
Castle
Grey's Anatomy
Scandal
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
The Carrie Diaries
Nikita

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
COPS (moving to Spike)
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
American Idol
Kitchen Nightmares
The Voice
The Biggest Loser
The Celebrity Apprentice
Dancing With the Stars
Shark Tank
The Bachelor
The Taste
America's Funniest Home Videos
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Rules of Engagement
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Whitney
Up All Night
1600 Penn
Guys With Kids
Go On
The New Normal
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
Happy Endings
The Family Tools
Malibu Country
How to Live With Your Parents

Dramas
Made in Jersey
Vegas
Golden Boy
CSI: NY
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Touch
Do No Harm
Smash
Deception
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Body of Proof
Red Widow
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
COPS (moving to Spike)
Ready for Love
Take It All
Bet on Your Baby
Splash

COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%- RENEWED
The Middle- 100%- RENEWED
Suburgatory- 100%- RENEWED
Parks & Recreation- 100%- RENEWED
Last Man Standing- 95%- RENEWED
Community- 80%- RENEWED
Go On- 70%- CANCELED
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65%- RENEWED
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%- CANCELED
Whitney- 51%- CANCELED
Malibu Country- 40%- CANCELED
                                                                  
The New Normal- 25%- CANCELED
Guys With Kids- 20%- CANCELED
Rules of Engagement- 15%- CANCELED
The Family Tools- 0%- CANCELED
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)- CANCELED
Up All Night- 0%- CANCELED
1600 Penn- 0%- CANCELED



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%- RENEWED
Once Upon a Time- 100%- RENEWED
Grey's Anatomy- 100%- RENEWED
Scandal- 100%- RENEWED
Castle- 100%- RENEWED
Revenge- 100%- RENEWED
Nikita- 95%- RENEWED
Nashville- 90%- RENEWED
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%- CANCELED
                                                                    
Hannibal- 10%
CSI:NY- 3%- CANCELED
Touch- 0%- CANCELED
Golden Boy- 0%- CANCELED
The Carrie Diaries- 0%- RENEWED
Vegas- 0% - CANCELED
Red Widow- 0%- CANCELED



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%- RENEWED
Shark Tank- 100%- RENEWED
Dancing With the Stars- 100%- RENEWED
American Idol- 100%- RENEWED
The Bachelor- 100%- RENEWED
The Biggest Loser- 100%- RENEWED
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%- RENEWED
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%- RENEWED
Oh Sit- 95% (PROBABLY SUMMER'S DOMAIN)
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80% (PROBABLY SUMMER'S DOMAIN)
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 51%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%- RENEWED
Take It All- 5%- CANCELED
Bet On Your Baby- 0%- CANCELED
Splash- 0%- CANCELED
Fashion Star- 0%

2013 TV Upfront Renewals and Cancellations

-NBC has decided to cancel four of its comedies.  Up All Night and 1600 Penn were pretty much just formalities, and Guys With Kids was not surprising.  On the other hand, Whitney was a bubble show that I had actually pegged as a renewal in my final projections.  Grimm is now the last surviving member of the NBC Class of 2011-12.

- Meanwhile, NBC renewed Parks & Recreation for a sixth season.  It will be NBC's oldest comedy next season and will likely have to anchor a block.

- CBS reached a deal with the cast to bring Criminal Minds back for a ninth season.

- FOX, in what was already certain, has canceled Touch.

- The CW renewed Nikita, as expected.  It will air a short 6 episode season per both Dateline and TV By the Numbers.  Surprisingly, it also renewed The Carrie Diaries, which I had given a 0% chance of renewal.  Where will it fit everything?

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Will There Be a How To LIve With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) Season 2

How to Live With Your Parents had a late premiere.  It has had solid, but volatile ratings in the few episodes that it has aired.  My guess is that ABC will wait to see tonight's ratings to make a decision.  As I said on the posts concerning Malibu Country and The Neighbors, ABC may have to squeeze one comedy that deserves a renewal out of one.  With that said, here is what I think is likely based on tonight's ratings:

2.1 demo or above: RENEWED
1.8-2.0 demo: TOSS-UP
1.7 demo or below: CANCELED

However, I have to make an official pick without that datum, and I will say:

Prediction:
RENEW

Confidence:
60%

Will There Be a Betty White's Off Their Rockers Season 3?

Reality renewals are notoriously hard to predict (and I am one of the only people who even try to do so), but I will say that Off Their Rockers is great spackle that NBC should have around.  For a show that costs little to make, it averaged a decent 1.43 rating in its second season.  However, NBC may do a number of things with it.  It could move it to summer (a partial renewal), air it as midseason filler, or completely dump it.  Betty White is also 91 years old, and she could want to stop making the show at any point (or she could even die).  Ultimately, this one is impossible to predict.

Prediction:
RENEW

Confidence:
51%

Will There Be a The Neighbors Season 2?

The Neighbors had a solid premiere following Modern Family (though the joke is that people just wanted to laugh at how bad the show was), but did a decent job as the season went on.  It averaged a near-ABC average 1.86 rating during its freshman season.  That should be enough to get it renewed.  It has the ratings to justify a renewal.  The only problem would be if ABC decides to renew both Malibu Country and How to Live With Your Parents (or one with two new fall comedies) AND not expend the Friday comedy block.  Is it possible that The Neighbors will be squeezed out of a spot next year? Yes.  Is it likely? No.

Prediction:
RENEW

Confidence:
65% (and I may be going a little to low)

Will There Be a Malibu Country Season 2?

This one depends on numbers of spots available.  In my mind, the ABC Comedy pecking order is as follows:

1. Modern Family
2. The Middle
3/4. Suburgatory and Last Man Standing
5/6. The Neighbors and How to Live With Your Parents
7. Malibu Country
8. Happy Endings
9. The Family Tools
10. Apartment 23 (already canceled)

Let's figure that ABC will want to premiere one new comedy in the fall and hold back one renewal for midseason.  That hypothetical only gives us 6 renewals.  Malibu Country's fate directly depends on the TGIF block returning in full (coupled with a second new fall comedy).

Prediction:
CANCEL

Confidence:
60%

Will There Be a Body of Proof Season 4?

Body of Proof was last year's surprise renewal (though, I was actually more surprised by Nikita's renewal).  Can it eek out another season?  Despite having aired 3 seasons, Body of Proof will have only aired 42 episodes, 38 short of the necessary 80 for syndication.  ABC needs to realize that a renewal could result in having to eat up even worse ratings for two more years (or three in midseason filler role).

What we need to remember is that Body of Proof was renewed last year due to an awful pilot season.  I do not think that that is the case again this year, although it probably ahs an otherwise stronger case this time around.

Prediction:
CANCEL

Confidence Level:
55%

Will There be a Whitney Season 3?

The critics hate Whitney, but NBC seems to kind of like it.  It brought back Whitney, firmly on the bubble, last season, and may do so again.  Whitney averaged a 1.24 rating this season, one-third lower than last.  However, with that said, it still has a fighting shot to be renewed.  It aired against tough competition (Survivor, The Middle, and The X Factor / American Idol).  However, what may save it is its stability.  Even with no support on a last-place network (during the times of the year that Whitney aired), it never dropped below a 1.0 rating.  It also repeats fairly well.

Furthermore, NBC should think about syndication, as it is only 42 episodes from 80, what I believe to be the magic syndication number.  As long as NBC is committed to airing multi-camera comedies, Whitney should return despite lower ratings than most of the other bubble comedies.

Prediction:
RENEWAL

Confidence Level:
51%

2013 TV Renewals and Cancellations Predictions


These are my final predictions.  I will write a short, separate post about all shows with between a 33% and 67% chance of renewal.  There is also breaking news that Deception has just been canceled.

Also, I will not chicken out and say 50%.  With that said, anything with 51% or 49% is just a gut-instinct prediction.

There are also a few big movers.  I have promoted Whitney to 51% after hearing Tom Shaw's Olympic spackle argument on TV By the Numbers's Bubble Watch.  CBS, even if it expands its comedy block, has so many comedy pilots that I have demoted Rules of Engagement to 15%.  There is some buzz that both The New Normal and Guys With Kids are not dead, and I have promoted them to 25% and 20%, respectively.  I expect to miss at least one of the NBC comedies.  However, I surprised myself by going 68-for-68 picking the NCAA Tournament Bubble.

I also promoted both Last Man Standing and Nikita to 95%, while I moved Betty White's Off Their Rockers to 51%.

Finally, you will see COPS, which is moving to Spike, in both the renewed and canceled lists.

THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 6 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Body of Proof, and Betty White's Off Their Rockers



OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI

Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
COPS (moving to Spike)
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)

Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Deception
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
COPS (moving to Spike)
Ready for Love

COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 95%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65% 
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Whitney- 51%
Malibu Country- 40% 
                                                                  
The New Normal- 25%
Guys With Kids- 20%
Rules of Engagement- 15%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nikita- 95%
Nashville- 90%
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 10%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0% 
Red Widow- 0%



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 51%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%

Saturday, May 4, 2013

2013 TV Renewal Odds- May 4


This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of May 4.  The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday.  The Goodwin Games and Friend Me will be covered as summer shows (scripted shows in summer rarely survive).

THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers

With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other.  However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled.  A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions.  Thus, only 22 of 117 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.




OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI

Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)

Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love


COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65% 
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Malibu Country- 40% 
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 35%
                                                                  
The New Normal- 15%
Guys With Kids- 10%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 5%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0% 
Red Widow- 0%



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%