2013-14 TV Renewal Odds- October 6

I have only included new shows that are scheduled to premiere by November 30.  On this blog, the term renewed means that a show will be on the schedule for the 2014-15 TV season, not just that it will air a full season.  I also do not make predictions on news programs, such as Dateline, 60 Minutes, and 20/20, although I am very confident that all 3 will be on the schedule for 2014-15.  Also, know that predictions for new shows will change greatly once we have data.



VETERANS ON ALERT IN 2013-14:
Two and a Half Men
Bones
Community
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
The Apprentice
The Mentalist
The Good Wife



NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
Bob's Burgers- Renewed, September 26
The Simpsons- Renewed, October 4
American Dad- Renewed, Moving to TBS
The Big Bang Theory- 100%
Family Guy- 100%
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Last Man Standing- 100% (+5%)
Parks & Recreation- 80% (-10%)
The Crazy Ones- 80% (+15%)
Suburgatory- 70%
Super Fun Night- 70% (+25%)
                                                                
The Millers- 60% (+11%)
The Goldbergs- 55% (+6%)
Mike & Molly- 51%
The Michael J. Fox Show- 51% (-19%)
Mom- 49% (-16%)
Two and a Half Men- 45% (-10%)
Brooklyn Nine-Nine- 40% (-18%)
Raising Hope- 40%
Community- 40%
Back in the Game- 35% (+15%)
                                                                  
The Mindy Project- 30% (+10%)
Sean Saves the World- 25%
Dads- 25% (+5%)
Trophy Wife- 5% (-20%)
The Neighbors- 3% (-27%)
Welcome to the Family- 0% (-20%)
We Are Men- 0% (-30%)
How I Met Your Mother- Final Season



DRAMAS
Glee- Renewed
Sleepy Hollow- Renewed, October 3
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
The Following- 100%
Scandal- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
Chicago Fire- 100% (+1%)
Revenge- 100% (+5%)
Grey's Anatomy- 99%
CSI- 99%
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.- 90%
The Blacklist- 90% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 85% (+20%)
Castle- 75%
Elementary- 75%
                                                              
Nashville- 65%
Parenthood- 55%
Blue Bloods- 55% (+15%)
The Originals- 55%
Reign- 55%
Hart of Dixie- 51%
Bones- 51%
Hawaii 5-0- 51% (+2%)
The Mentalist- 45% (-4%)
Dracula- 45%
The Good Wife- 40% (-15%)
The Tomorrow People- 35%
Revolution- 35% (+10%)
                                                                    
Hannibal- 30%
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland- 30%
Almost Human- 25%
Beauty and the Beast- 25%
The Carrie Diaries- 10%
Hostages- 0% (-51%)
Ironside- 0% (-25%)
Betrayal- 0% (-20%)
Lucky 7- Canceled, October 4
Nikita- Final Season



REALITY
MasterChef- Renewed for 2 more seasons (Junior edition 55%)
The Voice- 100%
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 70%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
The X Factor- 60% (+20%)
The Celebrity Apprentice- 45%
Kitchen Nightmares- 35%
                                                                          
The Sing Off- 30%
The Taste- 20%

2013-14 TV Renewal Odds- September 23

This is not just a rehash of what I said in July.  Predictions for shows that have already premiered are subject to the most change, but there also may be some modifications to other shows in advance of premiere week, which begins tonight.

I have only included new shows that are scheduled to premiere by November 30.  On this blog, the term renewed means that a show will be on the schedule for the 2014-15 TV season, not just that it will air a full season.  I also do not make predictions on news programs, such as Dateline, 60 Minutes, and 20/20, although I am very confident that all 3 will be on the schedule for 2014-15.  Also, know that predictions for new shows will change greatly once we have data.



VETERANS ON ALERT IN 2013-14:
Two and a Half Men
Bones
Community
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
The Apprentice
The Mentalist
The Good Wife



NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
American Dad- Renewed, Moving to TBS
The Big Bang Theory- 100%
Family Guy- 100%
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Last Man Standing- 95% (-2%)
Bob's Burgers- 95%
The Simpsons 90% (-10%)
Parks & Recreation- 90%
Suburgatory- 70%
The Michael J. Fox Show- 70%
                                                                
Mom- 65%
The Crazy Ones- 65%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine- 58% (+43%)
Two and a Half Men- 55%
Mike & Molly- 51%
The Goldbergs- 49%
The Millers- 49%
Super Fun Night- 45%
Raising Hope- 40%
Community- 40%
                                                                  
We Are Men- 30%
The Neighbors- 30% (-10%)
Trophy Wife- 25%
Sean Saves the World- 25%
Dads- 20% (-40%)
The Mindy Project- 20%
Back in the Game- 20%
Welcome to the Family- 20%
How I Met Your Mother- Final Season



DRAMAS
Glee- Renewed
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
The Following- 100%
Scandal- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
Grey's Anatomy- 99%
CSI- 99%
Chicago Fire- 99%
Revenge- 95%
Sleepy Hollow- 90% (+60%)
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.- 90%
Castle- 75%
Elementary- 75%
The Blacklist- 70%
                                                              
Law & Order: SVU- 65% (+5%)
Nashville- 65% (+5%)
The Good Wife- 55%
Parenthood- 55%
The Originals- 55%
Reign- 55%
Hart of Dixie- 51%
Bones- 51% (-4%)
Hostages- 51% (+11%)
The Mentalist- 49%
Hawaii 5-0- 49%
Dracula- 45%
Blue Bloods- 40%
The Tomorrow People- 35%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 30%
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland- 30%
Almost Human- 25%
Ironside- 25%
Beauty and the Beast- 25%
Revolution- 25%
Betrayal- 20%
Lucky 7- 15%
The Carrie Diaries- 10%
Nikita- Final Season



REALITY
MasterChef- Renewed for 2 more seasons (Junior edition 55%)
The Voice- 100%
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 70%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
The Celebrity Apprentice- 45%
The X Factor- 40% (-40%)
Kitchen Nightmares- 35%
                                                                          
The Sing Off- 30%
The Taste- 20%

Summer 2013 Renewal Odds

Here are my renewal and cancellation picks for Summer 2013:

CBS:
Under the Dome- Renewed
Big Brother- 100%
American Baking Competition- 15%
Unforgettable- 10%

ABC:
Rookie Blue- Renewed
Extreme Weight Loss- Renewed
Celebrity Wife Swap- Renewed
The Bachelorette- 100%
What Would You Do- 60%
Wipeout- 40%
Whodunnit- 35%
Mistresses- 15%
The Lookout- 1%
Motive- 0%

NBC:
Hollywood Game Night- Renewed
America's Got Talent- 100%
American Ninja Warrior- 75%
Get Out Alive- 45%
Camp- 40%
The Winner Is- 0%
Siberia- 0%
Save Me- 0%

FOX:
MasterChef- Renewed
Hell's Kitchen- Renewed
So You Think You Can Dance- 49%
Does Someone Have to Go- 0%
The Goodwin Games- 0%

CW:
Whose Line Is It Anyway- Renewed
America's Next Top Model- 90%
Oh Sit- 60%
Capture- 30%
Perfect Score- 1%
Breaking Pointe- 0%

2013-14 Preseason Renewal Odds

I have only included new shows that are scheduled to premiere by November 30.  On this blog, the term renewed means that a show will be on the schedule for the 2014-15 TV season, not just that it will air a full season.  I also do not make predictions on news programs, such as Dateline, 60 Minutes, and 20/20, although I am very confident that all 3 will be on the schedule for 2014-15.  Also, know that predictions for new shows will change greatly once we have data.



VETERANS ON ALERT IN 2013-14:
Two and a Half Men
Bones
Community
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
The Apprentice
The Mentalist
The Good Wife



NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
American Dad- Renewed, Moving to TBS
The Big Bang Theory- 100%
The Simpsons- 100%
Family Guy- 100%
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Last Man Standing- 97%
Bob's Burgers- 95%
Parks & Recreation- 90%
Suburgatory- 70%
The Michael J. Fox Show- 70%
                                                                
Mom- 65%
The Crazy Ones- 65%
Dads- 60%
Two and a Half Men- 55%
Mike & Molly- 51%
The Goldbergs- 49%
The Millers- 49%
Super Fun Night- 45%
Raising Hope- 40%
The Neighbors- 40% 
Community- 40%
                                                                  
We Are Men- 30%
Trophy Wife- 25%
Sean Saves the World- 25%
The Mindy Project- 20%
Back in the Game- 20%
Welcome to the Family- 20%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine- 15%
Enlisted- 8%
How I Met Your Mother- Final Season



DRAMAS
Glee- Renewed
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
The Following- 100%
Scandal- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
Grey's Anatomy- 99%
CSI- 99%
Chicago Fire- 99%
Revenge- 95%
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.- 90%
Castle- 75%
Elementary- 75%
The Blacklist- 70%
                                                              
Law & Order: SVU- 60%
Nashville- 60%
The Good Wife- 55%
Parenthood- 55%
Bones- 55%
The Originals- 55%
Reign- 55%
Hart of Dixie- 51%
The Mentalist- 49%
Hawaii 5-0- 49%
Dracula- 45%
Blue Bloods- 40%
Hostages- 40%
The Tomorrow People- 35%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 30%
Sleepy Hollow- 30%
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland- 30%
Almost Human- 25%
Ironside- 25%
Beauty and the Beast- 25%
Revolution- 25%
Betrayal- 20%
Lucky 7- 15%
The Carrie Diaries- 10%
Nikita- Final Season



REALITY
MasterChef- Renewed for 2 more seasons (Junior edition 49%)
The Voice- 100%
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 99%
The X Factor- 80%
The Biggest Loser- 70%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
The Celebrity Apprentice- 45%
Kitchen Nightmares- 35%
                                                                          
The Sing Off- 30%
The Taste- 20%

TV Longevity Predictions

Now that the 2012-13 Renew / Cancel season is over, I will predict the longevity of all remaining (returning) shows.

Class of 2012-13:
Elementary- 5 seasons (2012-2017)
The Neighbors- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Nashville- 4 seasons (2012-2016)
The Taste- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Chicago Fire- 7 seasons (2012-2019)
Revolution- 2 seasons (2012-2013)
The Mindy Project- 2 seasons (2012-2013)
The Following- 6 seasons (2013-2018)
Beauty & The Beast- 2 seasons (2012-2014)
Arrow- 5 seasons (2012-2017)
The Carrie Diaries- 2 seasons (2013-2013)

Class of 2011-12:
Two Broke Girls- 8 seasons (2011-2019)
Person of Interest- 8 seasons (2011-2019)
Last Man Standing- 4 seasons (2011-2015)
Suburgatory- 3 seasons (2011-2014)
Scandal- 9 seasons (2012-2020)
Once Upon a Time- 5 seasons (2011-2015)
Revenge- 4 seasons (2011-2015)
Grimm- 7 seasons (2011-2018)
New Girl- 6 seasons (2011-2017)
The X Factor- 3 seasons (2011-2013)
Hart of Dixie- 5 seasons (2011-2016)

Class of 2010-11:
Mike & Molly- 5 seasons (2010-2015)
Hawaii 5-0- 6 seasons (2010-2016)
Blue Bloods- 4 seasons (2010-2014)
The Voice- 10 seasons (2011-2016)
Raising Hope- 4 seasons (2010-2014)
Bob's Burgers- 8 seasons (2011-2018)
Nikita- 4 seasons (2010-2013)

Class of 2009-10:
NCIS: LA- 8 seasons (2009-2017)
The Good Wife- 5 seasons (2009-2014)
Undercover Boss- 6 seasons (2010-2015)
The Middle- 8 seasons (2009-2017)
Modern Family- 12 seasons (2009-2021)
Shark Tank- 10 seasons (2009-2019)
Community- 5 seasons (2009-2014)
Parenthood- 7 seasons (2009-2016)
The Sing Off- 4 seasons (2009-2013)
Glee- 6 seasons (2009-2015)
The Vampire Diaries- 10 seasons (2009-2019)

Class of 2008-09:
The Mentalist- 7 seasons (2008-2015)
Castle- 8 seasons (2009-2016)
Parks & Recreation- 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Class of 2007-08:
The Big Bang Theory- 16 seasons (2007-2023)

Class of 2006-07:
Already dead! (last survivor was Rules of Engagement)

Class of 2005-06:
How I Met Your Mother- 9 seasons (2005-2014)
Criminal Minds- 13 seasons (2005-2018)
Bones- 10 seasons (2005-2015)
Supernatural- 11 seasons (2005-2016)

Class of 2004-05:
Grey's Anatomy- 12 seasons (2004-2016)
Dancing With the Stars- 20 seasons (2005-2015)
The Biggest Loser- 18 seasons (2004-2016)
American Dad- 12 seasons (2005-2016)

Class of 2003-04:
Two and a Half Men- 12 seasons (2003-2015)
NCIS- 15 seasons (2003-2018)
The Apprentice- 14 seasons (2004-2014)

Class of 2002-03:
America's Next Top Model- 21 seasons (2003-2014)

Class of 2001-02:
The Amazing Race- 30 seasons (2001-2017)
The Bachelor- 22 seasons (2002-2018)
American Idol- 14 seasons (2002-2015)

Class of 2000-01:
CSI- 16 seasons (2000-2016)

Class of 1999-2000:
Survivor- 32 seasons (2000-2016)
Law & Order: SVU- 15 seasons (1999-2014)

Class of 1998-99:
Family Guy- 18 seasons (1999-2020)

CLASS OF 1989-90!!!!:
America's Funniest Home Videos- 30 seasons (1990-2020)
The Simpsons- 26 seasons (1989-2015)

2013 TV Renewals and Cancellations

You will still see my official final predictions, but with the word "Renewed or Canceled" next to those shows that did not have their fates decided as of then.  I will also add shows to the renewal and cancellation lists.  I will update this page as necessary.  It is up to date as of Sunday, May 19.

OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Parks & Recreation
Community
Modern Family
Suburgatory
The Middle
The Neighbors
Last Man Standing

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
Criminal Minds
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Nashville
Once Upon a Time
Revenge
Castle
Grey's Anatomy
Scandal
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
The Carrie Diaries
Nikita

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
COPS (moving to Spike)
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
American Idol
Kitchen Nightmares
The Voice
The Biggest Loser
The Celebrity Apprentice
Dancing With the Stars
Shark Tank
The Bachelor
The Taste
America's Funniest Home Videos
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Rules of Engagement
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Whitney
Up All Night
1600 Penn
Guys With Kids
Go On
The New Normal
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
Happy Endings
The Family Tools
Malibu Country
How to Live With Your Parents

Dramas
Made in Jersey
Vegas
Golden Boy
CSI: NY
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Touch
Do No Harm
Smash
Deception
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Body of Proof
Red Widow
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
COPS (moving to Spike)
Ready for Love
Take It All
Bet on Your Baby
Splash

COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%- RENEWED
The Middle- 100%- RENEWED
Suburgatory- 100%- RENEWED
Parks & Recreation- 100%- RENEWED
Last Man Standing- 95%- RENEWED
Community- 80%- RENEWED
Go On- 70%- CANCELED
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65%- RENEWED
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%- CANCELED
Whitney- 51%- CANCELED
Malibu Country- 40%- CANCELED
                                                                  
The New Normal- 25%- CANCELED
Guys With Kids- 20%- CANCELED
Rules of Engagement- 15%- CANCELED
The Family Tools- 0%- CANCELED
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)- CANCELED
Up All Night- 0%- CANCELED
1600 Penn- 0%- CANCELED



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%- RENEWED
Once Upon a Time- 100%- RENEWED
Grey's Anatomy- 100%- RENEWED
Scandal- 100%- RENEWED
Castle- 100%- RENEWED
Revenge- 100%- RENEWED
Nikita- 95%- RENEWED
Nashville- 90%- RENEWED
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%- CANCELED
                                                                    
Hannibal- 10%
CSI:NY- 3%- CANCELED
Touch- 0%- CANCELED
Golden Boy- 0%- CANCELED
The Carrie Diaries- 0%- RENEWED
Vegas- 0% - CANCELED
Red Widow- 0%- CANCELED



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%- RENEWED
Shark Tank- 100%- RENEWED
Dancing With the Stars- 100%- RENEWED
American Idol- 100%- RENEWED
The Bachelor- 100%- RENEWED
The Biggest Loser- 100%- RENEWED
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%- RENEWED
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%- RENEWED
Oh Sit- 95% (PROBABLY SUMMER'S DOMAIN)
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80% (PROBABLY SUMMER'S DOMAIN)
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 51%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%- RENEWED
Take It All- 5%- CANCELED
Bet On Your Baby- 0%- CANCELED
Splash- 0%- CANCELED
Fashion Star- 0%

2013 TV Upfront Renewals and Cancellations

-NBC has decided to cancel four of its comedies.  Up All Night and 1600 Penn were pretty much just formalities, and Guys With Kids was not surprising.  On the other hand, Whitney was a bubble show that I had actually pegged as a renewal in my final projections.  Grimm is now the last surviving member of the NBC Class of 2011-12.

- Meanwhile, NBC renewed Parks & Recreation for a sixth season.  It will be NBC's oldest comedy next season and will likely have to anchor a block.

- CBS reached a deal with the cast to bring Criminal Minds back for a ninth season.

- FOX, in what was already certain, has canceled Touch.

- The CW renewed Nikita, as expected.  It will air a short 6 episode season per both Dateline and TV By the Numbers.  Surprisingly, it also renewed The Carrie Diaries, which I had given a 0% chance of renewal.  Where will it fit everything?