Today, we look at the first hour of Wednesday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: Survivor (seasons 25 and 26)
FOX: The X Factor (season 2); midseason: American Idol (season 12)
NBC: Animal Practice (season 1) / Guys With Kids (season 1)
ABC: The Middle (season 3) / The Neighbors (season 1)
CW: Arrow (season 1)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Survivor: 3.35 (fall) / 2.83 (spring)
X Factor: 3.79
American Idol: 5.33
The Middle: 2.60
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. FOX- While American Idol is not the "death star" that it once was, FOX's singing shows continue to rate among the strongest on TV. Last season, The X Factor premiered to a 4.4, but that was considered a disappointment considering its hype. However, it averaged a solid 3.79 rating (but I weighed two hour and one and a half hour episodes equally). This year, there is more hype, as Britney Spears and Demi Lovato became judges. Due to that, I like X Factor to have a solid season, at a 3.71 rating (down 2%). American Idol is also shaking up its judges, but I am not sure that it will have the same effect. I do, however, not expect it to lose almost another third of its viewership this year and will give it a 4.00 rating (down 25%).
2. CBS- Survivor has aired 24 successful seasons on CBS. In fact, it holds the record for the most seasons aired by a primetime, broadcast entertainment program. However, last season was the first time that any episode dipped into the 2's, and the latter half of the season would not even sniff a 3.0! In fact the finale, which would normally spike to about a 4.0, only scored a 2.9. This year, the competition should be softer, as the other networks will be down. Also, casual fans like returning contestants (which the spring 2012 season lacked), and there will be all-stars on both seasons this year. It should still be in the decline mode for the fall (due to last spring's low numbers), but I think that this spring's season may be more appealing to the average viewer than last spring's. I will give Survivor a 3.02 (down 10%) in the fall and a 2.99 (up 6%) in the spring.
3. ABC- The Middle has been a solid lead-off show to a night with only one true superstar (Modern Family) for ABC. However, it lost 35% of its audience over the course of the season last year, which is more than that which can be accounted for by normal seasonal dips. I expect a rough season for The Middle, with a 2.04 (down 22%). I actually like The Neighbors to get a good sampling due to its 9:30 premiere in the post-Modern Family slot, but I expect that interest will quickly fade. I will give it a 22 episode order, with a 2.92 in the fall, but it will drop to a 1.38 by Daylight Savings Time.
4. NBC- I have little confidence in NBC's decision to start a comedy block without a veteran. What is worse is that the shows are not even compatible with one another. This has disaster written all over it. Animal Practice may wind up with a respectable average, like a 1.90 due to its post-Olympics premiere, but Guys With Kids will break a 1.5 only for its premiere and quickly fall to below a 1.0 before cancellation.
5. CW- Arrow does have a lot of hype, but this is the CW. The network is making a risky move by putting it without a lead-in (though local programming may actually have higher ratings than a CW show). I actually see this as a moderate success for the network (which will be down 30%+ as a whole), and I will give it a 0.48.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
The Best Shows on TV
My favorite 25 shows on TV (that have aired since 7/1/11):
25. Homeland- Showtime- This critically-acclaimed drama revolves around a CIA agent a POW-turned-terrorist. I get the love, but it only ranks here because I am not that much of a drama guy.
24. Anger Management- FX- Charlie Sheen's new character tries to act in almost the exact same way as his on Two and a Half Men. However, this show is just not the instant classic that Men is.
23. The Big Bang Theory- CBS- My favorite part of the show is watching Sheldon's idiosyncrasies.
22. The Voice- NBC- I am not a huge music fan, and I am not a huge fan of talent shows, but The Voice is by far the best of them.
21. Last Man Standing- ABC- I love Tim Allen's character's opinions- they are what every man thinks but is afraid to say. I just wish that there were more adult humor.
20. Man v. Food- Travel- As a competitive eater myself, I love to watch a show that revolves around eating challenges; however, Adam Richman is not as successful as I at eating challenges. I just think that I could beat him (which I did- I won something that he lost).
19. Top Shot- History- While I am pro-gun ownership rights, I really did not think that a show about guns would be that interesting until I watched it. As a plus, it has its roots in Survivor (which is still to come).
18. Expedition Impossible- ABC- While it only lasted one season, Expedition Impossible featured tough, physical challenges, beautiful scenery, and one of the most dominant teams in the history of Reality TV. On the other hand, I think that The Amazing Race is better.
17. Revenge- ABC-The plot of Revenge has so many twists and turns to keep viewers on their feet. I, however, just enjoy comedies and reality shows more than I do dramas.
16. Two Broke Girls- CBS- I love the overarching cupcake business storyline and the raunchy humor. I just wish that it were more relatable for an upper-class male.
15. Love in the Wild- NBC- The thing that sets LITW apart from other dating shows is its adventure spirit. Its adventures are the best part of the show (that and its consistent casting of hot chicks).
14. MasterChef- FOX- I enjoy MasterChef more than any other cooking show because of its consistently strong challenges and competitive spirit.
13. The Glass House- ABC- This show has improved from Big Brother in many ways; however, the one thing holding it back is the lack of depth in which we see the game.
12. Take the Money and Run- ABC- Take the Money and Run reminded me of The Mole, my second favorite show of all-time. Its one glaring weakness was my ability to tell if the team would win or lose based on the time remaining in the episode.
11. Rules of Engagement- CBS- The character of Jeff, an extreme macho-male, is one of the funniest characters on TV; however, his wife, Audrey, is annoying.
10. Missing- ABC- The best drama of the past year or so was one that nobody watched. It featured an exciting chase around Europe with a CIA scandal gradually playing out. They also set it up perfectly for a second season had there been one.
9. Whitney- NBC- I really do not understand why this show gets all the flack that it does; it is one of the funniest shows on TV.
8. The Amazing Race- CBS- TAR is great because it features teams travelling around the world and completing tasks. Some believe that the show is not as good as it once was, and that may be true, but it is still excellent.
7. The Celebrity Apprentice- NBC- The Celebrity Apprentice is amazing because of Donald Trump. Whether you love him or hate him, he asks the right questions to bring the proper drama and tension to the boardroom, which is the best elimination ceremony on TV.
6. Curb Your Enthusiasm- HBO- This is the only single-camera comedy to make the list. It is just about perfect, as Larry David thinks what everybody thinks. Also, the fact that it is on HBO allows it to not have the restraints that other networks have.
5. Big Brother- CBS- Big Brother is like Survivor played in a house with a few unnecessary gimmicks. This season, with all of its big moves and power shifts, is particularly good.
4. Two and a Half Men- CBS- Two and a Half Men has pulled off the transition between Charlie Sheen and Ashton Kutcher as well as it could have. It gives me thirty minutes of pure laughter.
3. Redneck Island- CMT- A direct Survivor rip-off on a small budget, Redneck Island combines an excellent strategy competition with some good redneck humor.
2. How I Met Your Mother- CBS- I caught onto this show recently, and this summer, I have watched the first five and a quarter seasons on Netflix. It is the funniest show on TV, and its mother plot adds an element of mystery. The cast is also perfect.
1. Survivor- CBS- Survivor remains the best show on TV due to its cutthroat strategy, great casts, strong challenges (water challenges will be back in Survivor: Philippines), and great locations. I also love that they keep the game fresh by adding in new twists. I just hope that having three tribes will help prevent one tribe from dismantling the other(s) this season.
25. Homeland- Showtime- This critically-acclaimed drama revolves around a CIA agent a POW-turned-terrorist. I get the love, but it only ranks here because I am not that much of a drama guy.
24. Anger Management- FX- Charlie Sheen's new character tries to act in almost the exact same way as his on Two and a Half Men. However, this show is just not the instant classic that Men is.
23. The Big Bang Theory- CBS- My favorite part of the show is watching Sheldon's idiosyncrasies.
22. The Voice- NBC- I am not a huge music fan, and I am not a huge fan of talent shows, but The Voice is by far the best of them.
21. Last Man Standing- ABC- I love Tim Allen's character's opinions- they are what every man thinks but is afraid to say. I just wish that there were more adult humor.
20. Man v. Food- Travel- As a competitive eater myself, I love to watch a show that revolves around eating challenges; however, Adam Richman is not as successful as I at eating challenges. I just think that I could beat him (which I did- I won something that he lost).
19. Top Shot- History- While I am pro-gun ownership rights, I really did not think that a show about guns would be that interesting until I watched it. As a plus, it has its roots in Survivor (which is still to come).
18. Expedition Impossible- ABC- While it only lasted one season, Expedition Impossible featured tough, physical challenges, beautiful scenery, and one of the most dominant teams in the history of Reality TV. On the other hand, I think that The Amazing Race is better.
17. Revenge- ABC-The plot of Revenge has so many twists and turns to keep viewers on their feet. I, however, just enjoy comedies and reality shows more than I do dramas.
16. Two Broke Girls- CBS- I love the overarching cupcake business storyline and the raunchy humor. I just wish that it were more relatable for an upper-class male.
15. Love in the Wild- NBC- The thing that sets LITW apart from other dating shows is its adventure spirit. Its adventures are the best part of the show (that and its consistent casting of hot chicks).
14. MasterChef- FOX- I enjoy MasterChef more than any other cooking show because of its consistently strong challenges and competitive spirit.
13. The Glass House- ABC- This show has improved from Big Brother in many ways; however, the one thing holding it back is the lack of depth in which we see the game.
12. Take the Money and Run- ABC- Take the Money and Run reminded me of The Mole, my second favorite show of all-time. Its one glaring weakness was my ability to tell if the team would win or lose based on the time remaining in the episode.
11. Rules of Engagement- CBS- The character of Jeff, an extreme macho-male, is one of the funniest characters on TV; however, his wife, Audrey, is annoying.
10. Missing- ABC- The best drama of the past year or so was one that nobody watched. It featured an exciting chase around Europe with a CIA scandal gradually playing out. They also set it up perfectly for a second season had there been one.
9. Whitney- NBC- I really do not understand why this show gets all the flack that it does; it is one of the funniest shows on TV.
8. The Amazing Race- CBS- TAR is great because it features teams travelling around the world and completing tasks. Some believe that the show is not as good as it once was, and that may be true, but it is still excellent.
7. The Celebrity Apprentice- NBC- The Celebrity Apprentice is amazing because of Donald Trump. Whether you love him or hate him, he asks the right questions to bring the proper drama and tension to the boardroom, which is the best elimination ceremony on TV.
6. Curb Your Enthusiasm- HBO- This is the only single-camera comedy to make the list. It is just about perfect, as Larry David thinks what everybody thinks. Also, the fact that it is on HBO allows it to not have the restraints that other networks have.
5. Big Brother- CBS- Big Brother is like Survivor played in a house with a few unnecessary gimmicks. This season, with all of its big moves and power shifts, is particularly good.
4. Two and a Half Men- CBS- Two and a Half Men has pulled off the transition between Charlie Sheen and Ashton Kutcher as well as it could have. It gives me thirty minutes of pure laughter.
3. Redneck Island- CMT- A direct Survivor rip-off on a small budget, Redneck Island combines an excellent strategy competition with some good redneck humor.
2. How I Met Your Mother- CBS- I caught onto this show recently, and this summer, I have watched the first five and a quarter seasons on Netflix. It is the funniest show on TV, and its mother plot adds an element of mystery. The cast is also perfect.
1. Survivor- CBS- Survivor remains the best show on TV due to its cutthroat strategy, great casts, strong challenges (water challenges will be back in Survivor: Philippines), and great locations. I also love that they keep the game fresh by adding in new twists. I just hope that having three tribes will help prevent one tribe from dismantling the other(s) this season.
2012-13 TV Season Preview- Tuesday 8:00
Today, we look at the first hour of Tuesday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: NCIS (season 10)
FOX: Raising Hope (season 3) / Ben & Kate (season 1)
NBC: The Voice Results Show (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars Results Show (seasons 15 and 16) / I do not think that comedies will air here mideseason.
CW: Hart of Dixie (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
NCIS: 3.75
Raising Hope: 2.15 (at 9:30)
The Voice: 3.48
Dancing With the Stars: 3.06 (fall) / 2.67 (spring)
Hart of Dixie: 0.64 (Mondays at 9:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. CBS- NCIS has been one of the steadiest shows on TV over the last few years. In fact, its seventh, eighth, and ninth seasons are its best three in the ratings. Last year, it was down 6% vs. 2010-11, but it was at its strongest level when compared to the rest of broadcast primetime (at 159% of the average rating). I do like NCIS to take a slight dip this year, but I think that it will finish on top of Tuesday nights, averaging a 3.63 (down 3%).
2. NBC- NBC may be able to win the hour in the fall, but I think that The Voice will have a major downturn in the spring. Last year, it only aired results shows in the final six weeks, when the show was at its weakest level. On average, American Idol's results shows were 8% weaker than its preformance shows, and I think that The Voice could fare slightly better. I like it to get a 3.90 (up 12%) in the fall and a 2.85 (down 18% vs. Spring 2012 or down 27% vs. Fall 2012) in the spring.
3. ABC- Just look at the projected scores for DWTS Preformance Shows on my Mondays at 8:00 post to determine a base. From there, I project the results shows to be about 13% weaker based on its past two years (four seasons). Therefore, I give DWTS a 3.38 (up 10%) in the fall and a 2.61 (down 2%) in the fall.
4. FOX-FOX is trying comedies in the 8:00 hour this year. I do not expect this move to work. Raising Hope averaged a 2.15 rating last year at 9:30, where it had the cushy New Girl lead-in. I expect this season to be disaster for Raising Hope, which will average a 1.64 (down 24%). Ben & Kate should be DOA and average a 1.05 over the four episodes that I think it will air.
5. CW- Hart of Dixie had a really rough second half of the season last year (worse than those of most shows), but somehow managed to get renewed. While it has to lead off a night this year, the competition will not be quite as much. I still only like it to bounce up slightly (if at all) from its 0.5's and 0.6's of the spring this fall, and I think that it should go lower in the spring. I give it a 0.54 (down 16%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: NCIS (season 10)
FOX: Raising Hope (season 3) / Ben & Kate (season 1)
NBC: The Voice Results Show (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars Results Show (seasons 15 and 16) / I do not think that comedies will air here mideseason.
CW: Hart of Dixie (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
NCIS: 3.75
Raising Hope: 2.15 (at 9:30)
The Voice: 3.48
Dancing With the Stars: 3.06 (fall) / 2.67 (spring)
Hart of Dixie: 0.64 (Mondays at 9:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. CBS- NCIS has been one of the steadiest shows on TV over the last few years. In fact, its seventh, eighth, and ninth seasons are its best three in the ratings. Last year, it was down 6% vs. 2010-11, but it was at its strongest level when compared to the rest of broadcast primetime (at 159% of the average rating). I do like NCIS to take a slight dip this year, but I think that it will finish on top of Tuesday nights, averaging a 3.63 (down 3%).
2. NBC- NBC may be able to win the hour in the fall, but I think that The Voice will have a major downturn in the spring. Last year, it only aired results shows in the final six weeks, when the show was at its weakest level. On average, American Idol's results shows were 8% weaker than its preformance shows, and I think that The Voice could fare slightly better. I like it to get a 3.90 (up 12%) in the fall and a 2.85 (down 18% vs. Spring 2012 or down 27% vs. Fall 2012) in the spring.
3. ABC- Just look at the projected scores for DWTS Preformance Shows on my Mondays at 8:00 post to determine a base. From there, I project the results shows to be about 13% weaker based on its past two years (four seasons). Therefore, I give DWTS a 3.38 (up 10%) in the fall and a 2.61 (down 2%) in the fall.
4. FOX-FOX is trying comedies in the 8:00 hour this year. I do not expect this move to work. Raising Hope averaged a 2.15 rating last year at 9:30, where it had the cushy New Girl lead-in. I expect this season to be disaster for Raising Hope, which will average a 1.64 (down 24%). Ben & Kate should be DOA and average a 1.05 over the four episodes that I think it will air.
5. CW- Hart of Dixie had a really rough second half of the season last year (worse than those of most shows), but somehow managed to get renewed. While it has to lead off a night this year, the competition will not be quite as much. I still only like it to bounce up slightly (if at all) from its 0.5's and 0.6's of the spring this fall, and I think that it should go lower in the spring. I give it a 0.54 (down 16%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
Monday, August 20, 2012
2012-13 TV Preview: Monday 8:00
Today, we look at the first hour of Monday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: How I Met Your Mother (season 8) / Partners (season 1)
FOX: Bones (season 8)
NBC: The Voice (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars (seasons 15 and 16) / The Bachelor (season 17)- Winter
CW: 90210 (season 5)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
HIMYM: 4.06 (series high season)
Bones: 2.39 (partially Thursdays at 9:00)
The Voice: 5.66 (including post-Super Bowl episode- 4.82 without)
Dancing With the Stars: 3.28 (fall) / 2.98 (spring)
The Bachelor: 2.57
90210: 0.70 (Tuesdays at 8:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- NBC should be able to hold off CBS in the 8:00 hour (at least for a while) due to the strength of The Voice. The show had a surprisingly strong premiere in the late spring (almost the summer) of 2011 and actually went up in week two. Last season, it really gained momentum via the Super Bowl. This year, it will premiere the night after the first week of Sunday Night Football and will be airing in the more heavily-viewed fall season for season 3; however, its ratings took a consistent fall throughout season 2. Season 4 should suffer due to a possible change in coaches. It should be able to garner a 4.15 rating in the fall, which is down 27% with the Super Bowl episode or down 14% without it. In the spring, I only like it to get 3.09 (down 45% or 36% from Spring 2012 / 26% from Fall 2012)
2. CBS- CBS has a fighting shot (and I actually like it) to beat NBC in the 8:00 half-hour. However, freshman comedy Partners is a question mark at 8:30. As for HIMYM, last season was the show's best season yet due to increased syndication exposure. Also, many people probably continue to tune in to see who the mother is (I think that she will be revealed this season). I like HIMYM to continue to climb to 4.17 (up 3%). While I think it has potential, I also think that Partners is wasting its potential. It will get solid ratings due to its timeslot, but will only get a 2.76 average over the first 13 episodes and will not receive a back order.
3. ABC- DWTS has dropped sharply over the last year, but its rating depend on its cast much more than most reality shows. As it will have an all-star season this fall, I like DWTS to rebound to 3.88 (up 18%) in the fall, and ride the momentum to 3.00 (up 1%) in the spring. Likewise, The Bachelor has dropped sharply over the last couple of years, but I think this year may be different. The Bachelorette was only down 1% this summer; furthermore, there is talk of Olympic sensation Ryan Lochte being the star this year. However, the "Bachelor audience" may not be the type of people who would care about sports. Still, I like it to have a solid 2.56 (down 0%) this winter.
4. FOX-FOX's drama department needs to be fired! At this point, every existing FOX drama is falling steeply in the ratings. Bones is no exception, as it fell 20% last season. This year, I expect things to be worse, as it will have no time in the cushy 9:00 Thursday post- X Factor timeslot. I like it to fall hard this year (but maybe still get renewed- FOX is the new NBC). 1.67 (down 31%).
5. CW- 90210 has been bounced all over the schedule. This year, it moves to the competitive 8:00 Monday slot, where I like it to get clobbered. The CW is in awful shape, so I expect its 0.51 rating (down 27%) to be one of the best on the network.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: How I Met Your Mother (season 8) / Partners (season 1)
FOX: Bones (season 8)
NBC: The Voice (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars (seasons 15 and 16) / The Bachelor (season 17)- Winter
CW: 90210 (season 5)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
HIMYM: 4.06 (series high season)
Bones: 2.39 (partially Thursdays at 9:00)
The Voice: 5.66 (including post-Super Bowl episode- 4.82 without)
Dancing With the Stars: 3.28 (fall) / 2.98 (spring)
The Bachelor: 2.57
90210: 0.70 (Tuesdays at 8:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- NBC should be able to hold off CBS in the 8:00 hour (at least for a while) due to the strength of The Voice. The show had a surprisingly strong premiere in the late spring (almost the summer) of 2011 and actually went up in week two. Last season, it really gained momentum via the Super Bowl. This year, it will premiere the night after the first week of Sunday Night Football and will be airing in the more heavily-viewed fall season for season 3; however, its ratings took a consistent fall throughout season 2. Season 4 should suffer due to a possible change in coaches. It should be able to garner a 4.15 rating in the fall, which is down 27% with the Super Bowl episode or down 14% without it. In the spring, I only like it to get 3.09 (down 45% or 36% from Spring 2012 / 26% from Fall 2012)
2. CBS- CBS has a fighting shot (and I actually like it) to beat NBC in the 8:00 half-hour. However, freshman comedy Partners is a question mark at 8:30. As for HIMYM, last season was the show's best season yet due to increased syndication exposure. Also, many people probably continue to tune in to see who the mother is (I think that she will be revealed this season). I like HIMYM to continue to climb to 4.17 (up 3%). While I think it has potential, I also think that Partners is wasting its potential. It will get solid ratings due to its timeslot, but will only get a 2.76 average over the first 13 episodes and will not receive a back order.
3. ABC- DWTS has dropped sharply over the last year, but its rating depend on its cast much more than most reality shows. As it will have an all-star season this fall, I like DWTS to rebound to 3.88 (up 18%) in the fall, and ride the momentum to 3.00 (up 1%) in the spring. Likewise, The Bachelor has dropped sharply over the last couple of years, but I think this year may be different. The Bachelorette was only down 1% this summer; furthermore, there is talk of Olympic sensation Ryan Lochte being the star this year. However, the "Bachelor audience" may not be the type of people who would care about sports. Still, I like it to have a solid 2.56 (down 0%) this winter.
4. FOX-FOX's drama department needs to be fired! At this point, every existing FOX drama is falling steeply in the ratings. Bones is no exception, as it fell 20% last season. This year, I expect things to be worse, as it will have no time in the cushy 9:00 Thursday post- X Factor timeslot. I like it to fall hard this year (but maybe still get renewed- FOX is the new NBC). 1.67 (down 31%).
5. CW- 90210 has been bounced all over the schedule. This year, it moves to the competitive 8:00 Monday slot, where I like it to get clobbered. The CW is in awful shape, so I expect its 0.51 rating (down 27%) to be one of the best on the network.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
2012-13 TV Preview- Sunday 8:00
Today, I will start my comprehensive preview of the 2012-13 TV season. I will use the SpottedRatings format for my preview, meaning that I will do one hour of the schedule every day (except Saturdays), starting with the 8:00 hour and ending with the 10:00 hour. Today, we look at 8:00 on Sundays.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: The Amazing Race (seasons 21 and 22)
FOX: The Simpsons (season 24) / Bob's Burgers (season 3)
NBC: Sunday Night Football; midseason: Fashion Star (season 2)
ABC: Once Upon a Time (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Amazing Race: 2.88 (fall) / 2.62 (spring)
The Simpsons: 2.87
Bob's Burgers: 1.87 (only in spring)
SNF: 8.36
Fashion Star: 1.56 (on Tuesdays only in spring)
OUAT: 3.27
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- If you include it in the rankings, Sunday Night Football was far and away the #1 program last year. Furthermore, the popularity of most sporting events (including football) grows every year. SNF should score 8.78 (up 5%). Come midseason, NBC will not be so successful in this slot. Fashion Star was part of a Voice-filled Tuesday last year. I do not expect it to do better than 1.25 (down 20%).
2. ABC- ABC is trying to team up its successful freshman dramas from last season to make up for the loss of Desperate Housewives from the Sunday schedule. While I think that it may help the other show, Revenge, I do not think that OUAT will see any growth from the scheduling move. Instead, I predict that it will score 3.01 (down 8%).
3. CBS- TAR was one of the most consistent shows on television for a long time, but it has gone down a bit over the last few years. History shows that it tends to bounce back two to three tenths from its rating the previous spring in the football-fueled fall. I will give it 2.86 (down 1% vs. Fall 2011) for the fall season and 2.55 (down 3% vs. Spring 2012) for the spring season.
4. FOX- FOX's Animation Domination does not really dominate anymore. Every now and then, The Simpsons will have a surprisingly solid season, but it struggled last year. I think that the animation block needs some serious retooling and that the ratings will continue to fall for the tentpoles. It should score 2.61 (down 9%). Bob's Burgers will fare better when it comes to percentages because last season only aired in the spring. I actually like it to grow slightly, to 1.91 (up 2%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: The Amazing Race (seasons 21 and 22)
FOX: The Simpsons (season 24) / Bob's Burgers (season 3)
NBC: Sunday Night Football; midseason: Fashion Star (season 2)
ABC: Once Upon a Time (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Amazing Race: 2.88 (fall) / 2.62 (spring)
The Simpsons: 2.87
Bob's Burgers: 1.87 (only in spring)
SNF: 8.36
Fashion Star: 1.56 (on Tuesdays only in spring)
OUAT: 3.27
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- If you include it in the rankings, Sunday Night Football was far and away the #1 program last year. Furthermore, the popularity of most sporting events (including football) grows every year. SNF should score 8.78 (up 5%). Come midseason, NBC will not be so successful in this slot. Fashion Star was part of a Voice-filled Tuesday last year. I do not expect it to do better than 1.25 (down 20%).
2. ABC- ABC is trying to team up its successful freshman dramas from last season to make up for the loss of Desperate Housewives from the Sunday schedule. While I think that it may help the other show, Revenge, I do not think that OUAT will see any growth from the scheduling move. Instead, I predict that it will score 3.01 (down 8%).
3. CBS- TAR was one of the most consistent shows on television for a long time, but it has gone down a bit over the last few years. History shows that it tends to bounce back two to three tenths from its rating the previous spring in the football-fueled fall. I will give it 2.86 (down 1% vs. Fall 2011) for the fall season and 2.55 (down 3% vs. Spring 2012) for the spring season.
4. FOX- FOX's Animation Domination does not really dominate anymore. Every now and then, The Simpsons will have a surprisingly solid season, but it struggled last year. I think that the animation block needs some serious retooling and that the ratings will continue to fall for the tentpoles. It should score 2.61 (down 9%). Bob's Burgers will fare better when it comes to percentages because last season only aired in the spring. I actually like it to grow slightly, to 1.91 (up 2%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
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