How I Met Your Mother Renewed for Season Nine

Today, CBS was able to strike a deal with the cast of its long-running comedy, How I Met Your Mother.  There had been widespread speculation that this season would be the show's last.  The writers of the show needed to know by the end of the month, one way or the other, so that they could either begin writing the ending of the plot or not.

What is really interesting is how close it actually came to ending this year.  Apparently, Jason Segel, who plays Marshall Erikson, was staunchly opposed to doing another season.  Essentially what happened was that CBS threw a ton of money his way, convincing him to do one more season.  According to a commenter on Dateline, he will be making $1.25 million an episode.  Over a 24 episode season, that amounts to $30 million.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/exclusive-how-i-met-your-mother-to-return-for-season-9-cast-deals-closed-today-after-jason-segel-turnaround-show-was-given-up-for-dead-until-11th-hour/

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- December 6

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).  New midseason shows will be added in early January.

FEATURED STORY:
What do Raising Hope's ratings mean? Raising Hope dropped to a 1.4 rating on Tuesday.  None the less, it remains at a 95% chance of renewal.  Why?  For starters, it is currently FOX's #2 live-action comedy when only counting the last five episodes.  This is fair to do, as The Mindy Project is slightly ahead of it (1.68 to 1.66) only due to its first couple of episodes.  For publicity purposes, it is highly unlikely that FOX cut back to 1 comedy hour.  Therefore, it will have to renew two or three of its current ones to avoid premiering too many new shows without support from veteran ones.  Also, this season will put it within one full season (22-24 episodes) of reaching 88 episodes, the magic number for syndication.  If it even rebounds slightly next week, I will move it to 100%.

BIG MOVERS (10% or more):
Upwards
1. Go On: +15%
1.Scandal: +15%
1. The Good Wife: +15%
4. Elementary: +10%
4. Chicago Fire: 10%

Downwards:
1. CSI: NY: -20%
2. Happy Endings: -10%


LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, How I Met Your Mother, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0, Go On, Glee
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Emily Owens, M.D., Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
How I Met Your Mother- Renewed- December 21
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Go On- 100% (+15%)
Two and a Half Men- 95%
Raising Hope- 95%
Parks & Recreation- 75% (-5%)
                                                                
The Cleveland Show- 60%
The Neighbors- 60% 
Last Man Standing- 55% (+5%)
Malibu Country- 50% (+5%)
The New Normal- 45%
 The Mindy Project- 30%  (-5%)
                                                                  
Rules of Engagement- 25%
Community- 20%
Happy Endings- 15% (-10%)
Up All Night- 15%
 Whitney- 10%
Guys With Kids- 5% 
Ben & Kate- 1% 
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0%
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100%
Hawaii 5-0- 100%
Glee- 100% (+4%)
Revolution- 97% (+7%)
Castle- 92% (+2%)
Parenthood- 85% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
The Mentalist- 65%
Elementary- 65% (+10%)
Scandal- 65% (+15%)
Smash- 60%
Chicago Fire- 60%  (+10%)
Hart of Dixie- 55%
The Good Wife- 55% (+15%)
Nashville- 50% 
90210- 45%
Nikita- 40% (+5%)
                                                                    
CSI:NY- 30% (-20%)
Beauty and the Beast- 20% (-5%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- Canceled- November 28
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 28

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
What will CBS do? According to TV By the Numbers, CBS will cancel three of its fall dramas to make room for new ones.  They have already canceled Made in Jersey, and I have Vegas as a 5% chance of renewal.  My numbers, however, do not reflect that idea, as I think that it may try to expand its Thursday comedy block.  If CBS does so, it will have to cancel (at least) two more between The Mentalist (65% chance of renewal), Elementary (55% chance of renewal), CSI: NY (50% chance of renewal), and The Good Wife (40% chance of renewal).  All of those shows should hope that CBS does not go to 8 comedies.  However, if it does so, Two and a Half Men (95% chance), How I Met Your Mother (70% chance), and maybe even Rules of Engagement (25% chance) will be renewed.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. The Neighbors: +20%
2.Revolution: +15%
2. The Good Wife: +15%

Downwards:
1. Whitney: -55%
2. Malibu Country: -20%
3. Ben & Kate: -19%
4. The Mindy Project: -15%
4. Happy Endings: -15%
4. The Mentalist: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Two and a Half Men- 95% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 95% (+10%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Parks & Recreation- 80% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
The Cleveland Show- 60% (+10%)
The Neighbors- 60% (+20%)
Last Man Standing- 50% (-5%)
Malibu Country- 45% (-20%)
The New Normal- 45%
 The Mindy Project- 35%  (-15%)
                                                                  
Happy Endings- 25% (-15%)
Rules of Engagement- 25% (+5%)
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15%
 Whitney- 10% (-55%)
Guys With Kids- 5% 
Ben & Kate- 1% (-19%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0% (-10%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100% (+1%)
Hawaii 5-0- 100% (+5%)
Glee- 96% (+3%)
Castle- 90%
Revolution- 90% (+15%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 80% (+5%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
The Mentalist- 65% (-15%)
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
Nashville- 50% 
CSI:NY- 50%
Chicago Fire- 50% 
Scandal- 50% (+10%)
90210- 45% (-5%)
The Good Wife- 40% (+15%)
Nikita- 35%
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 25% (-10%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% 
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Partners Canceled

CBS has finally decided to cancel its low-rated comedy, Partners.  It averaged a 2.07 rating in the six episodes that aired.  That rating is respectable on the surface, but the CBS comedy average is a 3.49 right now.  Granted, that number is brought up by the Thursday comedies.

The one questionable part of the move is the timing.  They should have either canceled it earlier and aired Rules of Engagement or waited to cancel it after its first 13 aired.  Instead, they will air Two and a Half Men repeats, from which I would not expect much better ratings.

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 13

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
Is Revolution really safe?  Over the last three weeks, it has dropped from a 3.3 to a 2.6 rating.  A 2.6 rating is still excellent for any show, especially for one at 10 PM.  However, Revolution is being boosted by The Voice (which averages a 4.61 rating for episodes that lead in to Revolution).  Revolution is currently fine, as the average of the other NBC Dramas is a 1.77, showing that Revolution could still fall significantly more and be safe, but the pace of the decline concerns me.  That is why I have dropped Revolution to a 75% chance of renewal this May.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. Chicago Fire: +30%
2. CSI:NY: +25%
2. Grimm: +25%
4. Raising Hope: +20%
5. Up All Night: +15%

Downwards
1. Revolution: -24%
2. Vegas: -20%
2. Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23: -20%
4. Guys With Kids: -15%
4. Last Resort: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: Up All Night (due to multi-camera transition)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100% (+3%)
Suburgatory- 100% (+5%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Two and a Half Men- 85% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 85% (+20%)
Parks & Recreation- 75%
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Last Man Standing- 55% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 50%  (-10%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
The New Normal- 45% 
The Neighbors- 40% (+10%)
Happy Endings- 40% (+5%)
                                                                  
Ben & Kate- 20% 
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15% (+15%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 10% (-20%)
Guys With Kids- 5% (-15%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100% (+25%)

Arrow- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 100% (+3%)

Bones- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 90% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Revolution- 75% (-24%)
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
90210- 50%
Nashville- 50% (+10%)
CSI:NY- 50% (+25%)
Chicago Fire- 50% (+30%)
Scandal- 40% (+10%)
Beauty and the Beast- 35% (+5%)
Nikita- 35% (+10%)
                                                                    
The Good Wife- 25%

Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%

Vegas- 5% (-20%)
Last Resort- 0% (-15%)
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% (-10%)
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 22

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).


Week Four Top Five Winners: 
1. Two and a Half Men- Up 30% to 75% I get that some of its bump was due to Miley Cyrus being on the show.  But how many times have we seen a guest actor not do anything to help a show.  My guess is that the four-season rule may apply to the Kutcher episodes separately.
2. 90210- Up 25% to 50% On the CW, the numbers are so close together that predictions can change quickly.
3. Arrow- Up 19% to 99%  Arrow has officially dethroned The Vampire Dairies as the #1 CW show.  I am just hesitant to move a new show up to 100%.
4. Revolution- Up 14% to 99%  We recently saw that Revolution has excellent C3 ratings.  Furthermore, it saw a sharp increase last week.  If it holds up next week (it is preempted by the debate tonight), it may make the move to 100%
5. Raising Hope- Up 10% to 65% Ben & Kate's drops mean good news for Raising Hope.


Week Four Top Five Losers:
1. Nikita- Down 40% to 25% I know that most third-season shows get a fourth for syndication, but a 0.3 is just bad.  It will likely drop to a 0.2 by spring.  Imagine a rounded 0.0 in spring 2014!
2. Beauty and the Beast- Down 30% to 30%  It is never good news when a rookie show drops by nearly 50% in Week Two.
3. Ben & Kate- Down 25% to 20% I know that it was leading into the debate, but a 1.2 rating is pathetic. It will be lucky to air all of its 18 episodes.
4. Emily Owens, M.D.- Down 20% to 10% I had expected this one to do a little better than a 0.5 for its premiere.
5. Chicago Fire- Down 20% to 10% At this point, its only hope is that SVU's costs are getting too high.  Other than that, 13 episodes is its likely fate.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: 666 Park Avenue (but still has just a 1% chance)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100% (+2%)
The Middle- 97%
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% 
Parks & Recreation- 75%
Two and a Half Men- 75% (+30%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Raising Hope- 65% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 60%  (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 45% 
Happy Endings- 35%
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 30% (-5%)
Guys With Kids- 20% 
Ben & Kate- 20% (-25%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0%
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%

Revenge- 100% (+1%)
Supernatural- 100% (+5%)

Bones- 99%
Revolution- 99% (+14%)
Arrow- 99% (+19%)
CSI- 97% (-2%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 85%
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
90210- 50% (+25%)
Hart of Dixie- 50% (+5%)
Nashville- 40% (-5%)
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 30% (-30%)
Scandal- 30%
CSI:NY- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% 

Nikita- 25% (-40%)
Chicago Fire- 20% (-10%)

Last Resort- 15% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 10% (-20%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (+1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Renewals and Cancellations

I missed doing full posts on these, but there was some news in renewals and cancellations.

Renewed:
The X Factor (October 22)
Homeland (October 22)

Canceled:
Private Practice (October 19)

Animal Practice Canceled

Yesterday, NBC canceled Animal Practice.  The show became the second fall show to be canceled.  Wednesday night, it dropped to a 1.1 rating.  Whitney, the sophomore multi-camera comedy will replace it on November 14.

America's Next Top Model Renewed, but Moving to Summer

The CW has renewed its long-running reality show, America's Next Top Model for a 20th season.  The catch is that it will move to summer after the current season finishes airing.  The one-time-hit is now on its final legs, but I would not be surprised to see it eek out a couple more seasons in the summer.  I never thought that it would make it past season 19, but its ratings ticked up versus last spring.

For more, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/americas-next-top-model-renewed-by-the-cw-for-20th-cycle/153342/

Bob's Burgers Renewed for Season 4

FOX renewed Bob's Burgers for another season today.  So far this season, Bob's Burgers is averaging a 2.45 rating, which is up versus last year.  Now, I already consider this the fourth season, but as animation production cycles are weird, the "fourth season" will likely be part of the 2012-13 season and part of the 2013-14 season.  For a press release, please visit:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/bobs-burgers-renewed-by-fox-for-season-4/153331/

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 15

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

This was actually a very good week for TV.  You will see a lot more green than red.  But, how about Next Caller being canceled before even airing an episode.

Week Three Top Five Winners: 
1. Blue Bloods- Up 30% to 80% A week after being on the other list, Blue Bloods had a good week.  It did much better without Made in Jersey.  Furthermore, syndication economics work in its favor.
-2. Beauty and the Beast- Up 20% to 70% This is a simple case of a show premiering to much better numbers than I expected it to premiere to.  Granted, it had the strongest lead-in of any CW show in well over a year.
t-3. Supernatural- Up 15% to 95%  It rode its Arrow lead-in to a crack of the 1.0 barrier that CW shows seldom cross.
t-3. Go On- Up 15% to 90%  Here is another show that recovered from being on the other list last week.  It is clearly a lead-in dependent show, but there is no chance that NBC will cancel its #1 comedy.  As long as it stays above a 2.0, Go On is unquestionably safe.
t-3. CSI: NY- Up 15% to 25% My guess is that the producers will want to end it after ten seasons, but should they want to continue, a 1.4 rating is passable on Fridays, even on CBS.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
1. 90210- Down 35% to 25% If it premiered to a 0.4 rating, where will it go?  I am probably generous in giving it a one-in-four chance of surviving, but the CW could always give a final season.
2. Hart of Dixie- Down 15% to 45%  Hart of Dixie had an alarming 29% week-to-week drop last week.  Since a renewal likely would be a two-season renewal (shows with two full seasons are rarely canceled in their third), its ratings will really have to be solid.
t-3. Last Resort- Down 10% to 15% A 1.6 rating is not good, but it is in a very difficult timeslot.  Otherwise, it would be in almost as bad of shape as 666 Park Avenue.
t-3. Guys With Kids- Down 10% to 20% Guys With Kids dropped by two tenths last week.  If Whitney comes back on Wednesdays, I would expect Whitney to outrate it.
5. Up All Night- Down 5% to 0% Up All Night, just when it appeared to be picking up a little steam, delivered a downright ugly 1.1 rating.  It is currently broadcast TV's worst performing comedy.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode) The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night, Animal Practice, 666 Park Avenue


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed 10/16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100% (+1%)
New Girl- 100% (+10%)
Mike & Molly- 98%
The Middle- 97% (+2%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% (+15%)
Parks & Recreation- 75% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 55%  (+5%)
Raising Hope- 55% (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45%
The New Normal- 45% (+5%)
Ben & Kate- 45% (+5%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 20% (-10%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0% (-5%)
Animal Practice- 0% (-2%)
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Supernatural- 95% (+15%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 85% (+5%)
Arrow- 80% (+10%)
Blue Bloods- 80% (+30%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Beauty and the Beast- 70% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 45% (-15%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30%
90210- 25% (-35%)
CSI:NY- 25% (+15%)
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% (+10%)
Last Resort- 15% (-10%)
Private Practice- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Made in Jersey Canceled by CBS

Made in Jersey will go down with the dubious honor of being the first show canceled in the 2012-13 TV Season.  The show seemed like a classic 13-and-out show, but at the same time, did not have the markings of the season's first cancellation.  I think that The Mob Doctor should have gone first, but FOX did not want to be the first to cancel a show.

Undercover Boss will replace Made in Jersey on November 2, with repeats airing in the mean time.

What will be canceled next: Partners, The Mob Doctor, or Animal Practice?

For more, including the CBS press release, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/10/made-in-jersey-pulled-from-cbs-schedule-undercover-boss-returns-friday-november-2-at-8pm/152449/comment-page-3/#comments

2012-13 TV Season Renewal Odds- October 8

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

Week Two Top Four Winners (several shows are tied for #5): 
1. The Mentalist- Up 20% to 75% Despite a terrible rating, I bumped this up so much because there are strong rumors that CBS secretly renewed it during the summer,
t-2. The Cleveland Show- Up 15% to 50%  A 2.2 rating in the 7:30 timeslot without a football lead-in is very solid.  FOX may consider keeping the exact same animation lineup for 2013-14.
t-2. Ben & Kate- Up 15% to 40%  This is another bump-up due to external factors.  FOX showed it a major vote of confidence by giving it a full season.
t-2. Guys With Kids- Up 15% to 30%  Guys With Kids is surprisingly building on its Animal Practice lead-in.  Furthermore, it stayed steady in Week Two, although it may have been helped by the debate lead-out.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
t-1. Vegas- Down 20% to 15% A 2.0 in Week Two is unacceptable for an expensive freshman drama on a station like CBS.  It would be fine if it could maintain a 2.0, but that would surprise me very much.
t-2. Blue Bloods- Down 20% to 50%  Last week, I said that syndication would likely save it for one more year, but I did not expect it to drop to a 1.2 rating.  This show is truly on the bubble now.
3. 666 Park Avenue- Down 19% to 1% It would likely have the top spot for a second straight week if it had further to fall.  Instead, a 1.7 rating puts it on the verge of being "locked up".
4. Go On- Down 17% to 75% Yes, Go On received a full season order, but it decisively failed its test with a weaker Voice lead-in.  Should The Voice drop in the Battle Rounds, I would worry for Go On.
5. Elementary- Down 15% to 55% Elementary dropped by six ticks in Week Two despite having its POI lead in up a tenth.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, The Mob Doctor, Partners


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
Mike & Molly- 98%
Suburgatory- 95%
The Middle- 95% (-3%)
New Girl- 90% (+10%)
Bob's Burgers- 75% (+5%)
Go On- 75% (-17%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
Parks & Recreation- 70% (+5%)
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 50% 
Raising Hope- 50%
The Cleveland Show- 50% (+15%)
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45% (+5%)
The New Normal- 40% 
Ben & Kate- 40% (+15%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 30% (+15%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 5% (+2%)
Animal Practice- 2% (+1%)
Partners- 0% (-2%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95% (+5%)
Glee- 93% (+3%)
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 80%
Supernatural- 80% (+5%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75% (+10%)
The Mentalist- 75% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
Arrow- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Hart of Dixie- 60% (+10%)
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% (-15%)
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Blue Bloods- 50% (-20%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30% (+5%)
Last Resort- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 15% (-20%)
Private Practice- 10% (-10%)
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (-19%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Renewal Odds for 2013-14- PREMIERE WEEK

Week One Top Five Winners: 
1. Bob's Burgers- Up 25% to 70%  Bob's Burgers displayed very solid premiere ratings.  It does not cost much to make and appears to be in good shape.
2. Grimm- Up 20% to 65%  I thought that Grimm may really struggle this year after I saw its Monday numbers.  However, its Friday premiere delivered solid-for-Friday numbers.
t-3. Grey's Anatomy- Up 15% to 100%  In what was a difficult premiere week for returning shows, Grey's Anatomy actually grew on its premiere numbers from a year ago.  Enough said.
t-3. Elementary- Up 15% to 70%  I never expected that Elementary would grow on its POI lead in.
t-5. The Neighbors (up 10% to 35%) and The Good Wife (up 10% to 25%).  The Good Wife's decision will come down to critical acclaim versus cost, while The Neighbors' fate will be more clear a week from now.

Week One Top Five Losers:
1.666 Park Avenue- Down 50% to 20%  I had expected 666 Park Avenue to be a very solid performer   Instead, it dropped big from its Revenge lead-in.
2.Two and a Half Men- Down 35% to 40%  A 3.5 may be great for most shows, but 2.5 Men is so expensive to produce.  Plus, it dropped 1.5 from its Big Bang lead in.
3. Animal Practice- Down 29% to 1%  Considering that it premiered after the Olympics (back in August), it should have been able to get more out of its first regular airing.  DOA.
4. Blue Bloods- Down 25% to 70%  Syndication should save it for one more year, but its premiere of a 1.5 was bad.
5. Partners- Down 23% to 2%  A 2.4 rating may be acceptable on any other network, but not CBS.  As CBS has Rules of Engagement, which should be good for a 3.0, ready, this is not long for the world.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and renewed in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, The Mob Doctor, Made in Jersey
Demoted: Hawaii 5-0 (now 90%)

NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
The Middle- 98% (+8%)
Mike & Molly- 98% (-1%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 92% (-5%)
New Girl- 80%
Bob's Burgers- 70% (+25%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Parks & Recreation- 65%
The Mindy Project- 50% (-5%)
Raising Hope- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 40% (-10%)
Two and a Half Men- 40% (-35%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Cleveland Show- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% (+10%)
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Ben & Kate- 25%
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Guys With Kids- 15% (-3%)
Up All Night- 3% (+2%)
Partners- 2% (-23%)
Animal Practice- 1% (-29%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100% (+5%)
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100% (+15%)
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
NCIS: LA- 99% (+4%)
Revenge- 99%- (+4%)
Glee- 90%
Hawaii 5-0- 90% (-10%)
Revolution- 85% (+5%)
Castle- 80% (-5%)
Parenthood- 75%
Supernatural- 75%
Blue Bloods- 70% (-25%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70% (+5%)
Arrow- 70%
Elementary- 70% (+15%)
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Grimm- 65% (+20%)
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
The Mentalist- 55% (-5%)
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Hart of Dixie- 50%
Nashville- 45%
Vegas- 35% (-10%)
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Last Resort- 25%
The Good Wife- 25% (+10%)
Scandal- 25%
Private Practice- 20% (-20%)
666 Park Avenue- 20% (-50%)
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Made in Jersey- 0% (-20%)
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

The Voice Renewed for 2013-14

NBC has announced that it has renewed The Voice for seasons 4 and 5 (spring / fall 2013).  The Voice is the first reality show and the first NBC to be renewed to the 2013-14 season.  NBC, in its press release, gives no new information about who the coaches will be for Season 5 (they are already known for Season 4).

The Voice has been consistently scoring ratings well above a 4.0 this season, and (so far), it is TV's #1 entertainment show for 2012-13.  Its Monday episodes (assuming an adjustment of 0.1 in finals, as is customary), are averaging a whopping 4.43 rating.

For more information: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/25/the-voice-renewed-by-nbc-for-seasons-4-and-5/150211/

Renewal Odds for 2013-14

As the 2012-13 TV Season officially begins tonight, now is a good time to update the renewal odds.  The main changes are that Go On and Revolution have had very good performances.  Meanwhile, The Mob Doctor and Up All Night were DOA.  What Would You Do, Glee, and America's Next Top Model also made significant strides.  There will be some other slight changes, such as small increases for The New Normal and The Voice.  I will update renewals and cancellations as they are announced, but I will only update percentages on Mondays.

NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
Mike & Molly- 99%
Go On- 97% (+32%)
Suburgatory- 95%
The Middle- 90%
New Girl- 80%
Two and a Half Men- 75%
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Parks & Recreation- 65%
The Mindy Project- 55%
Raising Hope- 50%
The New Normal- 50% (+10%)
Bob's Burgers- 45%
Last Man Standing- 45%
Happy Endings- 35%
The Cleveland Show- 35%
                                                                  
Animal Practice- 30%
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 25%
Partners- 25%
Ben & Kate- 25%
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20% (+5%)
Guys With Kids- 18% (+8%)
Up All Night- 1% (-19%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Hawaii 5-0- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Blue Bloods- 95%
NCIS: LA- 95%
Revenge- 95%- I put this too low last time, it is not an official change.
Once Upon a Time- 95%- I put this too low last time, it is not an official change.
Glee- 90% (+15%)
Castle- 85%
Grey's Anatomy- 85%
Revolution- 80% (+35%)
Parenthood- 75% (-5%)
Supernatural- 75%
666 Park Avenue- 70%
Arrow- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Law & Order: SVU- 65%
The Mentalist- 60%
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55%
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Hart of Dixie- 50%
Grimm- 45%
Vegas- 45%
Nashville- 45%
Private Practice- 40%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Last Resort- 25%
Scandal- 25%
Made in Jersey- 20%
The Good Wife- 15%
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
The Mob Doctor- 0% (-25%)
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
What Would You Do- 85% (+15%)
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60% (+59%)
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Renewal Odds for 2013-14

NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
Mike & Molly- 99%
Suburgatory- 95%
The Middle- 90%
New Girl- 80%
Two and a Half Men- 75%
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Parks & Recreation- 65%
Go On- 55%
The Mindy Project- 55%
Raising Hope- 50%
Bob's Burgers- 45%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 40%
Happy Endings- 35%
The Cleveland Show- 35%
                                                                  
Animal Practice- 30%
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 25%
Partners- 25%
Ben & Kate- 25%
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Up All Night- 20%
Community- 15%
Guys With Kids- 10%
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Hawaii 5-0- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Blue Bloods- 95%
NCIS: LA- 95%
Revenge- 90%
Castle- 85%
Grey's Anatomy- 85%
Once Upon a Time- 85%
Parenthood- 80%
Supernatural- 75%
Glee- 75%
666 Park Avenue- 70%
Arrow- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Law & Order: SVU- 65%
The Mentalist- 60%
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55%
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Hart of Dixie- 50%
Grimm- 45%
Revolution- 45%
Vegas- 45%
Nashville- 45%
Private Practice- 40%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Last Resort- 25%
Scandal- 25%
The Mob Doctor- 25%
Made in Jersey- 20%
The Good Wife- 15%
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season



REALITY
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Voice- 95%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
What Would You Do- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%
America's Next Top Model- 1%

2012-13 TV Preview: Wednesday 8:00

Today, we look at the first hour of Wednesday nights.


THE MATCHUP
CBS: Survivor (seasons 25 and 26)
FOX: The X Factor (season 2); midseason: American Idol (season 12)
NBC: Animal Practice (season 1) / Guys With Kids (season 1)
ABC: The Middle (season 3) / The Neighbors (season 1)
CW: Arrow (season 1)

2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Survivor: 3.35 (fall) / 2.83 (spring)
X Factor: 3.79
American Idol: 5.33
The Middle: 2.60

2012-13 PROJECTIONS

1. FOX- While American Idol is not the "death star" that it once was, FOX's singing shows continue to rate among the strongest on TV.  Last season, The X Factor premiered to a 4.4, but that was considered a disappointment considering its hype.  However, it averaged a solid 3.79 rating (but I weighed two hour and one and a half hour episodes equally).  This year, there is more hype, as Britney Spears and Demi Lovato became judges.  Due to that, I like X Factor to have a solid season, at a 3.71 rating (down 2%).  American Idol is also shaking up its judges, but I am not sure that it will have the same effect.  I do, however, not expect it to lose almost another third of its viewership this year and will give it a 4.00 rating (down 25%).

2. CBS- Survivor has aired 24 successful seasons on CBS.  In fact, it holds the record for the most seasons aired by a primetime, broadcast entertainment program.  However, last season was the first time that any episode dipped into the 2's, and the latter half of the season would not even sniff a 3.0!  In fact the finale, which would normally spike to about a 4.0, only scored a 2.9.  This year, the competition should be softer, as the other networks will be down.  Also, casual fans like returning contestants (which the spring 2012 season lacked), and there will be all-stars on both seasons this year.  It should still be in the decline mode for the fall (due to last spring's low numbers), but I think that this spring's season may be more appealing to the average viewer than last spring's.  I will give Survivor a 3.02 (down 10%) in the fall and a 2.99 (up 6%) in the spring.

3. ABC- The Middle has been a solid lead-off show to a night with only one true superstar (Modern Family) for ABC.  However, it lost 35% of its audience over the course of the season last year, which is more than that which can be accounted for by normal seasonal dips.  I expect a rough season for The Middle, with a 2.04 (down 22%).  I actually like The Neighbors to get a good sampling due to its 9:30 premiere in the post-Modern Family slot, but I expect that interest will quickly fade.  I will give it a 22 episode order, with a 2.92 in the fall, but it will drop to a 1.38 by Daylight Savings Time.

4. NBC- I have little confidence in NBC's decision to start a comedy block without a veteran.  What is worse is that the shows are not even compatible with one another.  This has disaster written all over it.  Animal Practice may wind up with a respectable average, like a 1.90 due to its post-Olympics premiere, but Guys With Kids will break a 1.5 only for its premiere and quickly fall to below a 1.0 before cancellation. 

5. CW- Arrow does have a lot of hype, but this is the CW.  The network is making a risky move by putting it without a lead-in (though local programming may actually have higher ratings than a CW show).  I actually see this as a moderate success for the network (which will be down 30%+ as a whole), and I will give it a 0.48.



All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.

The Best Shows on TV

My favorite 25 shows on TV (that have aired since 7/1/11):

25. Homeland- Showtime- This critically-acclaimed drama revolves around a CIA agent a POW-turned-terrorist.  I get the love, but it only ranks here because I am not that much of a drama guy.

24. Anger Management- FX- Charlie Sheen's new character tries to act in almost the exact same way as his on Two and a Half Men.  However, this show is just not the instant classic that Men is.

23. The Big Bang Theory- CBS- My favorite part of the show is watching Sheldon's idiosyncrasies.

22. The Voice- NBC- I am not a huge music fan, and I am not a huge fan of talent shows, but The Voice is by far the best of them.

21. Last Man Standing- ABC- I love Tim Allen's character's opinions- they are what every man thinks but is afraid to say.  I just wish that there were more adult humor.

20. Man v. Food- Travel- As a competitive eater myself, I love to watch a show that revolves around eating challenges; however, Adam Richman is not as successful as I at eating challenges.  I just think that I could beat him (which I did- I won something that he lost).

19. Top Shot- History- While I am pro-gun ownership rights, I really did not think that a show about guns would be that interesting until I watched it.  As a plus, it has its roots in Survivor (which is still to come).

18. Expedition Impossible- ABC- While it only lasted one season, Expedition Impossible featured tough, physical challenges, beautiful scenery, and one of the most dominant teams in the history of Reality TV.  On the other hand, I think that The Amazing Race is better.

17. Revenge- ABC-The plot of Revenge has so many twists and turns to keep viewers on their feet.  I, however, just enjoy comedies and reality shows more than I do dramas.

16. Two Broke Girls- CBS- I love the overarching cupcake business storyline and the raunchy humor.  I just wish that it were more relatable for an upper-class male.

15. Love in the Wild- NBC- The thing that sets LITW apart from other dating shows is its adventure spirit.  Its adventures are the best part of the show (that and its consistent casting of hot chicks).

14. MasterChef- FOX- I enjoy MasterChef more than any other cooking show because of its consistently strong challenges and competitive spirit.

13. The Glass House- ABC- This show has improved from Big Brother in many ways; however, the one thing holding it back is the lack of depth in which we see the game.

12. Take the Money and Run- ABC- Take the Money and Run reminded me of The Mole, my second favorite show of all-time.  Its one glaring weakness was my ability to tell if the team would win or lose based on the time remaining in the episode.

11. Rules of Engagement- CBS- The character of Jeff, an extreme macho-male, is one of the funniest characters on TV; however, his wife, Audrey, is annoying.

10. Missing- ABC- The best drama of the past year or so was one that nobody watched.  It featured an exciting chase around Europe with a CIA scandal gradually playing out.  They also set it up perfectly for a second season had there been one.

9. Whitney- NBC- I really do not understand why this show gets all the flack that it does; it is one of the funniest shows on TV.

8. The Amazing Race- CBS- TAR is great because it features teams travelling around the world and completing tasks.  Some believe that the show is not as good as it once was, and that may be true, but it is still excellent.

7. The Celebrity Apprentice- NBC- The Celebrity Apprentice is amazing because of Donald Trump.  Whether you love him or hate him, he asks the right questions to bring the proper drama and tension to the boardroom, which is the best elimination ceremony on TV.

6. Curb Your Enthusiasm- HBO-  This is the only single-camera comedy to make the list.  It is just about perfect, as Larry David thinks what everybody thinks.  Also, the fact that it is on HBO allows it to not have the restraints that other networks have.

5. Big Brother- CBS- Big Brother is like Survivor played in a house with a few unnecessary gimmicks.  This season, with all of its big moves and power shifts, is particularly good.

4. Two and a Half Men- CBS- Two and a Half Men has pulled off the transition between Charlie Sheen and Ashton Kutcher as well as it could have.  It gives me thirty minutes of pure laughter.

3. Redneck Island- CMT- A direct Survivor rip-off on a small budget, Redneck Island combines an excellent strategy competition with some good redneck humor.

2. How I Met Your Mother- CBS- I caught onto this show recently, and this summer, I have watched the first five and a quarter seasons on Netflix.  It is the funniest show on TV, and its mother plot adds an element of mystery.  The cast is also perfect.

1. Survivor- CBS- Survivor remains the best show on TV due to its cutthroat strategy, great casts, strong challenges (water challenges will be back in Survivor: Philippines), and great locations.  I also love that they keep the game fresh by adding in new twists.  I just hope that having three tribes will help prevent one tribe from dismantling the other(s) this season.

2012-13 TV Season Preview- Tuesday 8:00

Today, we look at the first hour of Tuesday nights.


THE MATCHUP
CBS: NCIS (season 10)
FOX: Raising Hope (season 3) / Ben & Kate (season 1)
NBC: The Voice Results Show (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars Results Show (seasons 15 and 16) / I do not think that comedies will air here mideseason.
CW: Hart of Dixie (season 2)

2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
NCIS: 3.75
Raising Hope: 2.15 (at 9:30)
The Voice: 3.48
Dancing With the Stars: 3.06 (fall) / 2.67 (spring)
Hart of Dixie: 0.64 (Mondays at 9:00)

2012-13 PROJECTIONS

1. CBS- NCIS has been one of the steadiest shows on TV over the last few years.  In fact, its seventh, eighth, and ninth seasons are its best three in the ratings.  Last year, it was down 6% vs. 2010-11, but it was at its strongest level when compared to the rest of broadcast primetime (at 159% of the average rating).  I do like NCIS to take a slight dip this year, but I think that it will finish on top of Tuesday nights, averaging a 3.63 (down 3%).

2. NBC- NBC may be able to win the hour in the fall, but I think that The Voice will have a major downturn in the spring.  Last year, it only aired results shows in the final six weeks, when the show was at its weakest level.  On average, American Idol's results shows were 8% weaker than its preformance shows, and I think that The Voice could fare slightly better.  I like it to get a 3.90 (up 12%) in the fall and a 2.85 (down 18% vs. Spring 2012 or down 27% vs. Fall 2012) in the spring. 

3. ABC- Just look at the projected scores for DWTS Preformance Shows on my Mondays at 8:00 post to determine a base.  From there, I project the results shows to be about 13% weaker based on its past two years (four seasons).  Therefore, I give DWTS a 3.38 (up 10%) in the fall and a 2.61 (down 2%) in the fall.

4. FOX-FOX is trying comedies in the 8:00 hour this year.  I do not expect this move to work.  Raising Hope averaged a 2.15 rating last year at 9:30, where it had the cushy New Girl lead-in.  I expect this season to be disaster for Raising Hope, which will average a 1.64 (down 24%).  Ben & Kate should be DOA and average a 1.05 over the four episodes that I think it will air.

5. CW- Hart of Dixie had a really rough second half of the season last year (worse than those of most shows), but somehow managed to get renewed.  While it has to lead off a night this year, the competition will not be quite as much.  I still only like it to bounce up slightly (if at all) from its 0.5's and 0.6's of the spring this fall, and I think that it should go lower in the spring.  I give it a 0.54 (down 16%).



All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.