2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 28

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
What will CBS do? According to TV By the Numbers, CBS will cancel three of its fall dramas to make room for new ones.  They have already canceled Made in Jersey, and I have Vegas as a 5% chance of renewal.  My numbers, however, do not reflect that idea, as I think that it may try to expand its Thursday comedy block.  If CBS does so, it will have to cancel (at least) two more between The Mentalist (65% chance of renewal), Elementary (55% chance of renewal), CSI: NY (50% chance of renewal), and The Good Wife (40% chance of renewal).  All of those shows should hope that CBS does not go to 8 comedies.  However, if it does so, Two and a Half Men (95% chance), How I Met Your Mother (70% chance), and maybe even Rules of Engagement (25% chance) will be renewed.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. The Neighbors: +20%
2.Revolution: +15%
2. The Good Wife: +15%

Downwards:
1. Whitney: -55%
2. Malibu Country: -20%
3. Ben & Kate: -19%
4. The Mindy Project: -15%
4. Happy Endings: -15%
4. The Mentalist: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Two and a Half Men- 95% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 95% (+10%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Parks & Recreation- 80% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
The Cleveland Show- 60% (+10%)
The Neighbors- 60% (+20%)
Last Man Standing- 50% (-5%)
Malibu Country- 45% (-20%)
The New Normal- 45%
 The Mindy Project- 35%  (-15%)
                                                                  
Happy Endings- 25% (-15%)
Rules of Engagement- 25% (+5%)
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15%
 Whitney- 10% (-55%)
Guys With Kids- 5% 
Ben & Kate- 1% (-19%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0% (-10%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100% (+1%)
Hawaii 5-0- 100% (+5%)
Glee- 96% (+3%)
Castle- 90%
Revolution- 90% (+15%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 80% (+5%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
The Mentalist- 65% (-15%)
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
Nashville- 50% 
CSI:NY- 50%
Chicago Fire- 50% 
Scandal- 50% (+10%)
90210- 45% (-5%)
The Good Wife- 40% (+15%)
Nikita- 35%
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 25% (-10%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% 
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Partners Canceled

CBS has finally decided to cancel its low-rated comedy, Partners.  It averaged a 2.07 rating in the six episodes that aired.  That rating is respectable on the surface, but the CBS comedy average is a 3.49 right now.  Granted, that number is brought up by the Thursday comedies.

The one questionable part of the move is the timing.  They should have either canceled it earlier and aired Rules of Engagement or waited to cancel it after its first 13 aired.  Instead, they will air Two and a Half Men repeats, from which I would not expect much better ratings.

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 13

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
Is Revolution really safe?  Over the last three weeks, it has dropped from a 3.3 to a 2.6 rating.  A 2.6 rating is still excellent for any show, especially for one at 10 PM.  However, Revolution is being boosted by The Voice (which averages a 4.61 rating for episodes that lead in to Revolution).  Revolution is currently fine, as the average of the other NBC Dramas is a 1.77, showing that Revolution could still fall significantly more and be safe, but the pace of the decline concerns me.  That is why I have dropped Revolution to a 75% chance of renewal this May.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. Chicago Fire: +30%
2. CSI:NY: +25%
2. Grimm: +25%
4. Raising Hope: +20%
5. Up All Night: +15%

Downwards
1. Revolution: -24%
2. Vegas: -20%
2. Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23: -20%
4. Guys With Kids: -15%
4. Last Resort: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: Up All Night (due to multi-camera transition)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100% (+3%)
Suburgatory- 100% (+5%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Two and a Half Men- 85% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 85% (+20%)
Parks & Recreation- 75%
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Last Man Standing- 55% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 50%  (-10%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
The New Normal- 45% 
The Neighbors- 40% (+10%)
Happy Endings- 40% (+5%)
                                                                  
Ben & Kate- 20% 
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15% (+15%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 10% (-20%)
Guys With Kids- 5% (-15%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100% (+25%)

Arrow- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 100% (+3%)

Bones- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 90% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Revolution- 75% (-24%)
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
90210- 50%
Nashville- 50% (+10%)
CSI:NY- 50% (+25%)
Chicago Fire- 50% (+30%)
Scandal- 40% (+10%)
Beauty and the Beast- 35% (+5%)
Nikita- 35% (+10%)
                                                                    
The Good Wife- 25%

Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%

Vegas- 5% (-20%)
Last Resort- 0% (-15%)
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% (-10%)
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%