Will There Be a Malibu Country Season 2?

This one depends on numbers of spots available.  In my mind, the ABC Comedy pecking order is as follows:

1. Modern Family
2. The Middle
3/4. Suburgatory and Last Man Standing
5/6. The Neighbors and How to Live With Your Parents
7. Malibu Country
8. Happy Endings
9. The Family Tools
10. Apartment 23 (already canceled)

Let's figure that ABC will want to premiere one new comedy in the fall and hold back one renewal for midseason.  That hypothetical only gives us 6 renewals.  Malibu Country's fate directly depends on the TGIF block returning in full (coupled with a second new fall comedy).

Prediction:
CANCEL

Confidence:
60%

2013 TV Renewal Odds- May 4

This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of May 4.  The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday.  The Goodwin Games and Friend Me will be covered as summer shows (scripted shows in summer rarely survive).

THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers

With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other.  However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled.  A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions.  Thus, only 22 of 117 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.




OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)

Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love


COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65% 
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Malibu Country- 40% 
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 35%
                                                                  
The New Normal- 15%
Guys With Kids- 10%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 5%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0% 
Red Widow- 0%



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%

2013 TV Renewal Odds- April 30

This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of April 30.  The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday.  The Goodwin Games will be covered as a summer show (scripted shows in summer rarely survive).  I think we have to assume that Friend Me will either air in summer or not at all.
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers

With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other.  However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled.  A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions.  Thus only 20 of 115 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.




OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project

Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast

Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)

OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)

Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)

Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love



COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
                                                                
The Neighbors- 65% 
How to Live With Your Parents- 51%
Malibu Country- 40% 
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 40%
                                                                  
The New Normal- 10%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
Guys With Kids- 0% 
1600 Penn- 0%



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
                                                              
Body of Proof- 45%
                                                                    
Hannibal- 25%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0% 
Red Widow- 0%



REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%

Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%

The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
                                                                       
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
                                                                          
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%