The critics hate Whitney, but NBC seems to kind of like it. It brought back Whitney, firmly on the bubble, last season, and may do so again. Whitney averaged a 1.24 rating this season, one-third lower than last. However, with that said, it still has a fighting shot to be renewed. It aired against tough competition (Survivor, The Middle, and The X Factor / American Idol). However, what may save it is its stability. Even with no support on a last-place network (during the times of the year that Whitney aired), it never dropped below a 1.0 rating. It also repeats fairly well.
Furthermore, NBC should think about syndication, as it is only 42 episodes from 80, what I believe to be the magic syndication number. As long as NBC is committed to airing multi-camera comedies, Whitney should return despite lower ratings than most of the other bubble comedies.
Prediction:
RENEWAL
Confidence Level:
51%
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
2013 TV Renewals and Cancellations Predictions
These are my final predictions. I will write a short, separate post about all shows with between a 33% and 67% chance of renewal. There is also breaking news that Deception has just been canceled.
Also, I will not chicken out and say 50%. With that said, anything with 51% or 49% is just a gut-instinct prediction.
There are also a few big movers. I have promoted Whitney to 51% after hearing Tom Shaw's Olympic spackle argument on TV By the Numbers's Bubble Watch. CBS, even if it expands its comedy block, has so many comedy pilots that I have demoted Rules of Engagement to 15%. There is some buzz that both The New Normal and Guys With Kids are not dead, and I have promoted them to 25% and 20%, respectively. I expect to miss at least one of the NBC comedies. However, I surprised myself by going 68-for-68 picking the NCAA Tournament Bubble.
I also promoted both Last Man Standing and Nikita to 95%, while I moved Betty White's Off Their Rockers to 51%.
Finally, you will see COPS, which is moving to Spike, in both the renewed and canceled lists.
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 6 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Body of Proof, and Betty White's Off Their Rockers
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
COPS (moving to Spike)
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Deception
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
COPS (moving to Spike)
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 95%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Whitney- 51%
Malibu Country- 40%
The New Normal- 25%
Guys With Kids- 20%
Rules of Engagement- 15%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nikita- 95%
Nashville- 90%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 10%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 51%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Saturday, May 4, 2013
2013 TV Renewal Odds- May 4
This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of May 4. The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday. The Goodwin Games and Friend Me will be covered as summer shows (scripted shows in summer rarely survive).
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other. However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled. A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions. Thus, only 22 of 117 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Malibu Country- 40%
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 35%
The New Normal- 15%
Guys With Kids- 10%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 5%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
2013 TV Renewal Odds- April 30
This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of April 30. The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday. The Goodwin Games will be covered as a summer show (scripted shows in summer rarely survive). I think we have to assume that Friend Me will either air in summer or not at all.
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other. However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled. A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions. Thus only 20 of 115 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 51%
Malibu Country- 40%
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 40%
The New Normal- 10%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
Guys With Kids- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 25%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
TV Renewal Odds Coming Tomorrow
Sorry that I have been bad about updating this ever since the New Year, but I will get back on my game tomorrow. Thank you!
Friday, December 21, 2012
How I Met Your Mother Renewed for Season Nine
Today, CBS was able to strike a deal with the cast of its long-running comedy, How I Met Your Mother. There had been widespread speculation that this season would be the show's last. The writers of the show needed to know by the end of the month, one way or the other, so that they could either begin writing the ending of the plot or not.
What is really interesting is how close it actually came to ending this year. Apparently, Jason Segel, who plays Marshall Erikson, was staunchly opposed to doing another season. Essentially what happened was that CBS threw a ton of money his way, convincing him to do one more season. According to a commenter on Dateline, he will be making $1.25 million an episode. Over a 24 episode season, that amounts to $30 million.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/exclusive-how-i-met-your-mother-to-return-for-season-9-cast-deals-closed-today-after-jason-segel-turnaround-show-was-given-up-for-dead-until-11th-hour/
What is really interesting is how close it actually came to ending this year. Apparently, Jason Segel, who plays Marshall Erikson, was staunchly opposed to doing another season. Essentially what happened was that CBS threw a ton of money his way, convincing him to do one more season. According to a commenter on Dateline, he will be making $1.25 million an episode. Over a 24 episode season, that amounts to $30 million.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/exclusive-how-i-met-your-mother-to-return-for-season-9-cast-deals-closed-today-after-jason-segel-turnaround-show-was-given-up-for-dead-until-11th-hour/
Thursday, December 6, 2012
2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- December 6
By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season. The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal. However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case). New midseason shows will be added in early January.
FEATURED STORY:
What do Raising Hope's ratings mean? Raising Hope dropped to a 1.4 rating on Tuesday. None the less, it remains at a 95% chance of renewal. Why? For starters, it is currently FOX's #2 live-action comedy when only counting the last five episodes. This is fair to do, as The Mindy Project is slightly ahead of it (1.68 to 1.66) only due to its first couple of episodes. For publicity purposes, it is highly unlikely that FOX cut back to 1 comedy hour. Therefore, it will have to renew two or three of its current ones to avoid premiering too many new shows without support from veteran ones. Also, this season will put it within one full season (22-24 episodes) of reaching 88 episodes, the magic number for syndication. If it even rebounds slightly next week, I will move it to 100%.
BIG MOVERS (10% or more):
Upwards
1. Go On: +15%
1.Scandal: +15%
1. The Good Wife: +15%
4. Elementary: +10%
4. Chicago Fire: 10%
Downwards:
1. CSI: NY: -20%
2. Happy Endings: -10%
LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, How I Met Your Mother, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0, Go On, Glee
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Emily Owens, M.D., Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23
NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
How I Met Your Mother- Renewed- December 21
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Go On- 100% (+15%)
Two and a Half Men- 95%
Raising Hope- 95%
Parks & Recreation- 75% (-5%)
The Cleveland Show- 60%
The Neighbors- 60%
Last Man Standing- 55% (+5%)
Malibu Country- 50% (+5%)
The New Normal- 45%
The Mindy Project- 30% (-5%)
Rules of Engagement- 25%
Community- 20%
Happy Endings- 15% (-10%)
Up All Night- 15%
Whitney- 10%
Guys With Kids- 5%
Ben & Kate- 1%
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0%
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100%
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100%
Hawaii 5-0- 100%
Glee- 100% (+4%)
Revolution- 97% (+7%)
Castle- 92% (+2%)
Parenthood- 85% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
The Mentalist- 65%
Elementary- 65% (+10%)
Scandal- 65% (+15%)
Smash- 60%
Chicago Fire- 60% (+10%)
Hart of Dixie- 55%
The Good Wife- 55% (+15%)
Nashville- 50%
90210- 45%
Nikita- 40% (+5%)
CSI:NY- 30% (-20%)
Beauty and the Beast- 20% (-5%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5%
Emily Owens, M.D.- Canceled- November 28
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10
REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80%
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
Fashion Star- 30%
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