The Neighbors had a solid premiere following Modern Family (though the joke is that people just wanted to laugh at how bad the show was), but did a decent job as the season went on. It averaged a near-ABC average 1.86 rating during its freshman season. That should be enough to get it renewed. It has the ratings to justify a renewal. The only problem would be if ABC decides to renew both Malibu Country and How to Live With Your Parents (or one with two new fall comedies) AND not expend the Friday comedy block. Is it possible that The Neighbors will be squeezed out of a spot next year? Yes. Is it likely? No.
Prediction:
RENEW
Confidence:
65% (and I may be going a little to low)
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Will There Be a Malibu Country Season 2?
This one depends on numbers of spots available. In my mind, the ABC Comedy pecking order is as follows:
1. Modern Family
2. The Middle
3/4. Suburgatory and Last Man Standing
5/6. The Neighbors and How to Live With Your Parents
7. Malibu Country
8. Happy Endings
9. The Family Tools
10. Apartment 23 (already canceled)
Let's figure that ABC will want to premiere one new comedy in the fall and hold back one renewal for midseason. That hypothetical only gives us 6 renewals. Malibu Country's fate directly depends on the TGIF block returning in full (coupled with a second new fall comedy).
Prediction:
CANCEL
Confidence:
60%
1. Modern Family
2. The Middle
3/4. Suburgatory and Last Man Standing
5/6. The Neighbors and How to Live With Your Parents
7. Malibu Country
8. Happy Endings
9. The Family Tools
10. Apartment 23 (already canceled)
Let's figure that ABC will want to premiere one new comedy in the fall and hold back one renewal for midseason. That hypothetical only gives us 6 renewals. Malibu Country's fate directly depends on the TGIF block returning in full (coupled with a second new fall comedy).
Prediction:
CANCEL
Confidence:
60%
Will There Be a Body of Proof Season 4?
Body of Proof was last year's surprise renewal (though, I was actually more surprised by Nikita's renewal). Can it eek out another season? Despite having aired 3 seasons, Body of Proof will have only aired 42 episodes, 38 short of the necessary 80 for syndication. ABC needs to realize that a renewal could result in having to eat up even worse ratings for two more years (or three in midseason filler role).
What we need to remember is that Body of Proof was renewed last year due to an awful pilot season. I do not think that that is the case again this year, although it probably ahs an otherwise stronger case this time around.
Prediction:
CANCEL
Confidence Level:
55%
What we need to remember is that Body of Proof was renewed last year due to an awful pilot season. I do not think that that is the case again this year, although it probably ahs an otherwise stronger case this time around.
Prediction:
CANCEL
Confidence Level:
55%
Will There be a Whitney Season 3?
The critics hate Whitney, but NBC seems to kind of like it. It brought back Whitney, firmly on the bubble, last season, and may do so again. Whitney averaged a 1.24 rating this season, one-third lower than last. However, with that said, it still has a fighting shot to be renewed. It aired against tough competition (Survivor, The Middle, and The X Factor / American Idol). However, what may save it is its stability. Even with no support on a last-place network (during the times of the year that Whitney aired), it never dropped below a 1.0 rating. It also repeats fairly well.
Furthermore, NBC should think about syndication, as it is only 42 episodes from 80, what I believe to be the magic syndication number. As long as NBC is committed to airing multi-camera comedies, Whitney should return despite lower ratings than most of the other bubble comedies.
Prediction:
RENEWAL
Confidence Level:
51%
Furthermore, NBC should think about syndication, as it is only 42 episodes from 80, what I believe to be the magic syndication number. As long as NBC is committed to airing multi-camera comedies, Whitney should return despite lower ratings than most of the other bubble comedies.
Prediction:
RENEWAL
Confidence Level:
51%
2013 TV Renewals and Cancellations Predictions
These are my final predictions. I will write a short, separate post about all shows with between a 33% and 67% chance of renewal. There is also breaking news that Deception has just been canceled.
Also, I will not chicken out and say 50%. With that said, anything with 51% or 49% is just a gut-instinct prediction.
There are also a few big movers. I have promoted Whitney to 51% after hearing Tom Shaw's Olympic spackle argument on TV By the Numbers's Bubble Watch. CBS, even if it expands its comedy block, has so many comedy pilots that I have demoted Rules of Engagement to 15%. There is some buzz that both The New Normal and Guys With Kids are not dead, and I have promoted them to 25% and 20%, respectively. I expect to miss at least one of the NBC comedies. However, I surprised myself by going 68-for-68 picking the NCAA Tournament Bubble.
I also promoted both Last Man Standing and Nikita to 95%, while I moved Betty White's Off Their Rockers to 51%.
Finally, you will see COPS, which is moving to Spike, in both the renewed and canceled lists.
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 6 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Body of Proof, and Betty White's Off Their Rockers
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
COPS (moving to Spike)
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Deception
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
COPS (moving to Spike)
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 95%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Whitney- 51%
Malibu Country- 40%
The New Normal- 25%
Guys With Kids- 20%
Rules of Engagement- 15%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nikita- 95%
Nashville- 90%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 10%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 51%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Saturday, May 4, 2013
2013 TV Renewal Odds- May 4
This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of May 4. The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday. The Goodwin Games and Friend Me will be covered as summer shows (scripted shows in summer rarely survive).
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other. However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled. A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions. Thus, only 22 of 117 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 60%
Malibu Country- 40%
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 35%
The New Normal- 15%
Guys With Kids- 10%
The Family Tools- 0%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 5%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
Oh Sit- 95%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
2013 TV Renewal Odds- April 30
This update includes all entertainment programs that have premiered as of April 30. The Family Tools is not included, but will be added on Thursday. The Goodwin Games will be covered as a summer show (scripted shows in summer rarely survive). I think we have to assume that Friend Me will either air in summer or not at all.
THE TRUE BUBBLE SHOWS:
Only 7 of them: The Neighbors, How to Live With Your Parents, Whitney, Malibu Country, Rules of Engagement, Body of Proof, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
With that said, a network could always surprise us, one way or the other. However, 41 shows have already been renewed and 23 have already been canceled. A further 31 shows are considered 100% certain decisions. Thus only 20 of 115 shows are not 100% clear as to their fates.
OFFICIALLY RENEWED:
Comedies:
The Big Bang Theory
How I Met Your Mother (for final full season)
Two Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
Two and a Half Men
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Bob's Burgers
New Girl
Raising Hope
The Mindy Project
Dramas:
NCIS
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
CSI
Hawaii 5-0
Blue Bloods
The Mentalist
Elementary
The Good Wife
The Following
Bones
Glee (through 2015)
Grimm
Revolution
Parenthood
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Arrow
The Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Reality:
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Undercover Boss
Hell's Kitchen
The X Factor
The Voice
America's Next Top Model (moving to summer)
OFFICIALLY CANCELED
Comedies:
Partners
Ben & Kate
The Cleveland Show (may air some episodes in 2013-14)
Next Caller (never aired an episode)
Animal Practice
Don't Trust The B- in Apartment 23
30 Rock (final season)
The Office (final season)
Dramas
Made in Jersey
The Mob Doctor
Fringe (final season)
Do No Harm
Smash
Last Resort
666 Park Avenue
Zero Hour
Private Practice (final season)
Cult
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210 (final season)
Gossip Girl (final season)
Reality:
The Job
Ready for Love
COMEDIES
Modern Family- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Parks & Recreation- 100%
Last Man Standing- 85%
Community- 80%
Go On- 70%
The Neighbors- 65%
How to Live With Your Parents- 51%
Malibu Country- 40%
Whitney- 40%
Rules of Engagement- 40%
The New Normal- 10%
Happy Endings- 0% (on ABC)
Up All Night- 0%
Guys With Kids- 0%
1600 Penn- 0%
DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
Sacndal- 100%
Castle- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Nashville- 90%
Nikita- 88%
Body of Proof- 45%
Hannibal- 25%
Deception- 5%
CSI:NY- 3%
Touch- 0%
Golden Boy- 0%
The Carrie Diaries- 0%
Vegas- 0%
Red Widow- 0%
REALITY
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 100%
The Biggest Loser- 100%
Kitchen Nightmares- 100%
COPS- 100%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 100%
What Would You Do- 85%
Wife Swap- 80%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
The Taste- 10%
Take It All- 5%
Bet On Your Baby- 0%
Splash- 0%
Fashion Star- 0%
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)