Today, we look at the first hour of Monday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: How I Met Your Mother (season 8) / Partners (season 1)
FOX: Bones (season 8)
NBC: The Voice (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars (seasons 15 and 16) / The Bachelor (season 17)- Winter
CW: 90210 (season 5)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
HIMYM: 4.06 (series high season)
Bones: 2.39 (partially Thursdays at 9:00)
The Voice: 5.66 (including post-Super Bowl episode- 4.82 without)
Dancing With the Stars: 3.28 (fall) / 2.98 (spring)
The Bachelor: 2.57
90210: 0.70 (Tuesdays at 8:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- NBC should be able to hold off CBS in the 8:00 hour (at least for a while) due to the strength of The Voice. The show had a surprisingly strong premiere in the late spring (almost the summer) of 2011 and actually went up in week two. Last season, it really gained momentum via the Super Bowl. This year, it will premiere the night after the first week of Sunday Night Football and will be airing in the more heavily-viewed fall season for season 3; however, its ratings took a consistent fall throughout season 2. Season 4 should suffer due to a possible change in coaches. It should be able to garner a 4.15 rating in the fall, which is down 27% with the Super Bowl episode or down 14% without it. In the spring, I only like it to get 3.09 (down 45% or 36% from Spring 2012 / 26% from Fall 2012)
2. CBS- CBS has a fighting shot (and I actually like it) to beat NBC in the 8:00 half-hour. However, freshman comedy Partners is a question mark at 8:30. As for HIMYM, last season was the show's best season yet due to increased syndication exposure. Also, many people probably continue to tune in to see who the mother is (I think that she will be revealed this season). I like HIMYM to continue to climb to 4.17 (up 3%). While I think it has potential, I also think that Partners is wasting its potential. It will get solid ratings due to its timeslot, but will only get a 2.76 average over the first 13 episodes and will not receive a back order.
3. ABC- DWTS has dropped sharply over the last year, but its rating depend on its cast much more than most reality shows. As it will have an all-star season this fall, I like DWTS to rebound to 3.88 (up 18%) in the fall, and ride the momentum to 3.00 (up 1%) in the spring. Likewise, The Bachelor has dropped sharply over the last couple of years, but I think this year may be different. The Bachelorette was only down 1% this summer; furthermore, there is talk of Olympic sensation Ryan Lochte being the star this year. However, the "Bachelor audience" may not be the type of people who would care about sports. Still, I like it to have a solid 2.56 (down 0%) this winter.
4. FOX-FOX's drama department needs to be fired! At this point, every existing FOX drama is falling steeply in the ratings. Bones is no exception, as it fell 20% last season. This year, I expect things to be worse, as it will have no time in the cushy 9:00 Thursday post- X Factor timeslot. I like it to fall hard this year (but maybe still get renewed- FOX is the new NBC). 1.67 (down 31%).
5. CW- 90210 has been bounced all over the schedule. This year, it moves to the competitive 8:00 Monday slot, where I like it to get clobbered. The CW is in awful shape, so I expect its 0.51 rating (down 27%) to be one of the best on the network.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
2012-13 TV Preview- Sunday 8:00
Today, I will start my comprehensive preview of the 2012-13 TV season. I will use the SpottedRatings format for my preview, meaning that I will do one hour of the schedule every day (except Saturdays), starting with the 8:00 hour and ending with the 10:00 hour. Today, we look at 8:00 on Sundays.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: The Amazing Race (seasons 21 and 22)
FOX: The Simpsons (season 24) / Bob's Burgers (season 3)
NBC: Sunday Night Football; midseason: Fashion Star (season 2)
ABC: Once Upon a Time (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Amazing Race: 2.88 (fall) / 2.62 (spring)
The Simpsons: 2.87
Bob's Burgers: 1.87 (only in spring)
SNF: 8.36
Fashion Star: 1.56 (on Tuesdays only in spring)
OUAT: 3.27
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- If you include it in the rankings, Sunday Night Football was far and away the #1 program last year. Furthermore, the popularity of most sporting events (including football) grows every year. SNF should score 8.78 (up 5%). Come midseason, NBC will not be so successful in this slot. Fashion Star was part of a Voice-filled Tuesday last year. I do not expect it to do better than 1.25 (down 20%).
2. ABC- ABC is trying to team up its successful freshman dramas from last season to make up for the loss of Desperate Housewives from the Sunday schedule. While I think that it may help the other show, Revenge, I do not think that OUAT will see any growth from the scheduling move. Instead, I predict that it will score 3.01 (down 8%).
3. CBS- TAR was one of the most consistent shows on television for a long time, but it has gone down a bit over the last few years. History shows that it tends to bounce back two to three tenths from its rating the previous spring in the football-fueled fall. I will give it 2.86 (down 1% vs. Fall 2011) for the fall season and 2.55 (down 3% vs. Spring 2012) for the spring season.
4. FOX- FOX's Animation Domination does not really dominate anymore. Every now and then, The Simpsons will have a surprisingly solid season, but it struggled last year. I think that the animation block needs some serious retooling and that the ratings will continue to fall for the tentpoles. It should score 2.61 (down 9%). Bob's Burgers will fare better when it comes to percentages because last season only aired in the spring. I actually like it to grow slightly, to 1.91 (up 2%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: The Amazing Race (seasons 21 and 22)
FOX: The Simpsons (season 24) / Bob's Burgers (season 3)
NBC: Sunday Night Football; midseason: Fashion Star (season 2)
ABC: Once Upon a Time (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Amazing Race: 2.88 (fall) / 2.62 (spring)
The Simpsons: 2.87
Bob's Burgers: 1.87 (only in spring)
SNF: 8.36
Fashion Star: 1.56 (on Tuesdays only in spring)
OUAT: 3.27
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- If you include it in the rankings, Sunday Night Football was far and away the #1 program last year. Furthermore, the popularity of most sporting events (including football) grows every year. SNF should score 8.78 (up 5%). Come midseason, NBC will not be so successful in this slot. Fashion Star was part of a Voice-filled Tuesday last year. I do not expect it to do better than 1.25 (down 20%).
2. ABC- ABC is trying to team up its successful freshman dramas from last season to make up for the loss of Desperate Housewives from the Sunday schedule. While I think that it may help the other show, Revenge, I do not think that OUAT will see any growth from the scheduling move. Instead, I predict that it will score 3.01 (down 8%).
3. CBS- TAR was one of the most consistent shows on television for a long time, but it has gone down a bit over the last few years. History shows that it tends to bounce back two to three tenths from its rating the previous spring in the football-fueled fall. I will give it 2.86 (down 1% vs. Fall 2011) for the fall season and 2.55 (down 3% vs. Spring 2012) for the spring season.
4. FOX- FOX's Animation Domination does not really dominate anymore. Every now and then, The Simpsons will have a surprisingly solid season, but it struggled last year. I think that the animation block needs some serious retooling and that the ratings will continue to fall for the tentpoles. It should score 2.61 (down 9%). Bob's Burgers will fare better when it comes to percentages because last season only aired in the spring. I actually like it to grow slightly, to 1.91 (up 2%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
Monday, July 23, 2012
MasterChef Renewed for Season Four
No surprise at all here, but FOX has renewed MasterChef for a fourth season. While this has been a rough summer for TV ratings in general, FOX notes that MasterChef is up 8% in the key demo from last summer. This continues Gordon Ramsay's success story, as he has never had a show canceled in the United States. MasterChef is averaging a 2.41 rating on Mondays and a 2.20 rating on Tuesdays for the summer; however, it scored a 2.6 rating on Monday and a 2.5 rating on Tuesday last week. After this week, the show will take a short hiatus and then air on Tuesdays.
Here is a link to the TVBTN article, which includes FOX's press release:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/07/23/masterchef-renewed-by-fox-for-season-four/142313/
Here is a link to the TVBTN article, which includes FOX's press release:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/07/23/masterchef-renewed-by-fox-for-season-four/142313/
Saturday, July 21, 2012
What Will be the #1 Show of Summer 2012?
Here is the current show hierarchy:
** Excluding Fourth of July Episode
- AGT Mondays/ Tuesdays (NBC) ------ 3.05
- AGT Tuesdays/ Wednesdays (NBC)--- 2.89
- Hell's Kitchen Mondays (FOX)---------2.51
- MasterChef Mondays (FOX)-----------2.41
- Big Brother Thursdays (CBS)-----------2.40
- Bachelorette (ABC)-------------------- 2.32
- Big Brother Sundays (CBS)------------ 2.30
- So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)- 2.30
- Hell's Kitchen Tuesdays (FOX)-------- 2.22
- MasterChef Tuesdays (FOX)---------- 2.20
- Big Brother Wednesdays (CBS)------- 2.00
- American Ninja Warrior (NBC)------- 1.97*
- Wipeout Thursdays (ABC)------------ 1.83
- The Choice (FOX)-------------------- 1.48
- Wipeout Tuesdays (ABC)------------- 1.45
- Secret Millionaire (ABC)-------------- 1.44
- EM: Weight Loss Edition (ABC)------- 1.42
- Love in the Wild (NBC)--------------- 1.39
- Rookie Blue (ABC)------------------- 1.30
- NY Med (ABC)---------------------- 1.20
- Duets (ABC)-------------------------- 1.19
- Take Me Out (FOX)------------------ 1.17
- Final Witness (ABC)------------------ 1.10**
- Glass House (ABC)------------------- 1.08
- Dogs in the City (CBS)---------------- 1.05
- Trust Us With Your Life (ABC)------- 0.98
- Saving Hope (NBC)------------------ 0.57
- Breaking Pointe (CW)---------------- 0.27
- The Catalina (CW)------------------- 0.25
** Excluding Fourth of July Episode
Summer Renewals and Cancellations- July 21
Notes for today:
- Trust Us With Your Life flopped and is a Certain Cancellation for ABC.
- NY Med is a Likely Cancellation, as ABC could save it to renew a summer show. For the same reason, I have bumped Final Witness up a line.
- After a 1.2 rating in the finale, The Choice is a Likely Cancellation.
- Secret Millionaire has had decent ratings and is On the Bubble.
- I want to see Love in the Wild's finale ratings before making a call, but I am leaning towards 'Likely Cancellation' for next week.
- Big Brother is a Certain Renewal.
Already Canceled
Certain Cancellation
ABC
Duets
Glass House
Trust Us With Your Life
CBS
Dogs in the City
FOX
Take Me Out
NBC
Saving Hope
CW
Breaking Pointe
Catalina
Likely Cancellation
ABC
Final Witness
NY Med
FOX
The Choice
On the Bubble
ABC
Rookie Blue
Secret Millionaire
NBC
Love in the Wild
Likely Renewal
Certain Renewal
ABC
The Bachelorette (could already be considered renewed based off something executive said)
Wipeout
CBS
Big Brother
FOX
MasterChef
So You Think You Can Dance
NBC
America's Got Talent
American Ninja Warrior
Already Renewed
ABC
Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition
FOX
Hell's Kitchen (through season 12)
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Summer Renewals and Cancellations- July 8
Notes for today:
- I know that it has been a while, but I was on vacation in the Dominican Republic.
- The Glass House and Final Witness both flopped and are Certain Cancellations for ABC.
- FOX had canceled Take Me Out by exiling it to Saturdays, but the show's ratings increase in its final week on Thursdays convinced the network to reverse the decision. I still have it as a Certain Cancellation.
- Wipeout had a solid first couple weeks and will be back in 2013.
- After a 1.2 rating, Secret Millionaire is again a Likely Cancellation.
- Love in the Wild remains On the Bubble despite its 1.2 rating, because it is extremely cheap to produce (it was in the same ballpark last year), and its low rating occurred on the eve of the 4th of July.
- This is the last update before Big Brother adds three hours a week of high 2's ratings to the picture.
Already Canceled
Certain Cancellation
ABC
Duets
Glass House
Final Witness
CBS
Dogs in the City
FOX
Take Me Out
NBC
Saving Hope
CW
Breaking Pointe
Catalina
Likely Cancellation
ABC
Secret Millionaire
On the Bubble
ABC
Rookie Blue
Secret Millionaire
FOX
The Choice
NBC
Love in the Wild
Likely Renewal
Certain Renewal
ABC
The Bachelorette (could already be considered renewed based off something executive said)
Wipeout
FOX
MasterChef
So You Think You Can Dance
NBC
America's Got Talent
American Ninja Warrior
Already Renewed
ABC
Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition
FOX
Hell's Kitchen (through season 12)
- I know that it has been a while, but I was on vacation in the Dominican Republic.
- The Glass House and Final Witness both flopped and are Certain Cancellations for ABC.
- FOX had canceled Take Me Out by exiling it to Saturdays, but the show's ratings increase in its final week on Thursdays convinced the network to reverse the decision. I still have it as a Certain Cancellation.
- Wipeout had a solid first couple weeks and will be back in 2013.
- After a 1.2 rating, Secret Millionaire is again a Likely Cancellation.
- Love in the Wild remains On the Bubble despite its 1.2 rating, because it is extremely cheap to produce (it was in the same ballpark last year), and its low rating occurred on the eve of the 4th of July.
- This is the last update before Big Brother adds three hours a week of high 2's ratings to the picture.
Already Canceled
Certain Cancellation
ABC
Duets
Glass House
Final Witness
CBS
Dogs in the City
FOX
Take Me Out
NBC
Saving Hope
CW
Breaking Pointe
Catalina
Likely Cancellation
ABC
Secret Millionaire
On the Bubble
ABC
Rookie Blue
Secret Millionaire
FOX
The Choice
NBC
Love in the Wild
Likely Renewal
Certain Renewal
ABC
The Bachelorette (could already be considered renewed based off something executive said)
Wipeout
FOX
MasterChef
So You Think You Can Dance
NBC
America's Got Talent
American Ninja Warrior
Already Renewed
ABC
Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition
FOX
Hell's Kitchen (through season 12)
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Unforgettable- May Have a Season 2 After All
Today, a report surfaced claiming that there may be a second season of Unforgettable. It would air during the summer of 2013, more than a year after the original series finale. This is a slightly different circumstance than The LA Complex's second season this summer; the difference is that Canada is not involved here.
This deal, however, is still far from final. According to a commenter in the TV By the Numbers comments section, CBS has until June 30th to decide.
TVBTN Articele: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/06/20/unforgettable-not-forgotten-after-all/138837/
Deadline Article: http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/unforgettable-negotiations-cbs-return-summer-2013/
This deal, however, is still far from final. According to a commenter in the TV By the Numbers comments section, CBS has until June 30th to decide.
TVBTN Articele: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/06/20/unforgettable-not-forgotten-after-all/138837/
Deadline Article: http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/unforgettable-negotiations-cbs-return-summer-2013/
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