Today, we look at the first hour of Monday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: How I Met Your Mother (season 8) / Partners (season 1)
FOX: Bones (season 8)
NBC: The Voice (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars (seasons 15 and 16) / The Bachelor (season 17)- Winter
CW: 90210 (season 5)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
HIMYM: 4.06 (series high season)
Bones: 2.39 (partially Thursdays at 9:00)
The Voice: 5.66 (including post-Super Bowl episode- 4.82 without)
Dancing With the Stars: 3.28 (fall) / 2.98 (spring)
The Bachelor: 2.57
90210: 0.70 (Tuesdays at 8:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. NBC- NBC should be able to hold off CBS in the 8:00 hour (at least for a while) due to the strength of The Voice. The show had a surprisingly strong premiere in the late spring (almost the summer) of 2011 and actually went up in week two. Last season, it really gained momentum via the Super Bowl. This year, it will premiere the night after the first week of Sunday Night Football and will be airing in the more heavily-viewed fall season for season 3; however, its ratings took a consistent fall throughout season 2. Season 4 should suffer due to a possible change in coaches. It should be able to garner a 4.15 rating in the fall, which is down 27% with the Super Bowl episode or down 14% without it. In the spring, I only like it to get 3.09 (down 45% or 36% from Spring 2012 / 26% from Fall 2012)
2. CBS- CBS has a fighting shot (and I actually like it) to beat NBC in the 8:00 half-hour. However, freshman comedy Partners is a question mark at 8:30. As for HIMYM, last season was the show's best season yet due to increased syndication exposure. Also, many people probably continue to tune in to see who the mother is (I think that she will be revealed this season). I like HIMYM to continue to climb to 4.17 (up 3%). While I think it has potential, I also think that Partners is wasting its potential. It will get solid ratings due to its timeslot, but will only get a 2.76 average over the first 13 episodes and will not receive a back order.
3. ABC- DWTS has dropped sharply over the last year, but its rating depend on its cast much more than most reality shows. As it will have an all-star season this fall, I like DWTS to rebound to 3.88 (up 18%) in the fall, and ride the momentum to 3.00 (up 1%) in the spring. Likewise, The Bachelor has dropped sharply over the last couple of years, but I think this year may be different. The Bachelorette was only down 1% this summer; furthermore, there is talk of Olympic sensation Ryan Lochte being the star this year. However, the "Bachelor audience" may not be the type of people who would care about sports. Still, I like it to have a solid 2.56 (down 0%) this winter.
4. FOX-FOX's drama department needs to be fired! At this point, every existing FOX drama is falling steeply in the ratings. Bones is no exception, as it fell 20% last season. This year, I expect things to be worse, as it will have no time in the cushy 9:00 Thursday post- X Factor timeslot. I like it to fall hard this year (but maybe still get renewed- FOX is the new NBC). 1.67 (down 31%).
5. CW- 90210 has been bounced all over the schedule. This year, it moves to the competitive 8:00 Monday slot, where I like it to get clobbered. The CW is in awful shape, so I expect its 0.51 rating (down 27%) to be one of the best on the network.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
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