TV Renewal Odds Coming Tomorrow

Sorry that I have been bad about updating this ever since the New Year, but I will get back on my game tomorrow.  Thank you!

How I Met Your Mother Renewed for Season Nine

Today, CBS was able to strike a deal with the cast of its long-running comedy, How I Met Your Mother.  There had been widespread speculation that this season would be the show's last.  The writers of the show needed to know by the end of the month, one way or the other, so that they could either begin writing the ending of the plot or not.

What is really interesting is how close it actually came to ending this year.  Apparently, Jason Segel, who plays Marshall Erikson, was staunchly opposed to doing another season.  Essentially what happened was that CBS threw a ton of money his way, convincing him to do one more season.  According to a commenter on Dateline, he will be making $1.25 million an episode.  Over a 24 episode season, that amounts to $30 million.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/exclusive-how-i-met-your-mother-to-return-for-season-9-cast-deals-closed-today-after-jason-segel-turnaround-show-was-given-up-for-dead-until-11th-hour/

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- December 6

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).  New midseason shows will be added in early January.

FEATURED STORY:
What do Raising Hope's ratings mean? Raising Hope dropped to a 1.4 rating on Tuesday.  None the less, it remains at a 95% chance of renewal.  Why?  For starters, it is currently FOX's #2 live-action comedy when only counting the last five episodes.  This is fair to do, as The Mindy Project is slightly ahead of it (1.68 to 1.66) only due to its first couple of episodes.  For publicity purposes, it is highly unlikely that FOX cut back to 1 comedy hour.  Therefore, it will have to renew two or three of its current ones to avoid premiering too many new shows without support from veteran ones.  Also, this season will put it within one full season (22-24 episodes) of reaching 88 episodes, the magic number for syndication.  If it even rebounds slightly next week, I will move it to 100%.

BIG MOVERS (10% or more):
Upwards
1. Go On: +15%
1.Scandal: +15%
1. The Good Wife: +15%
4. Elementary: +10%
4. Chicago Fire: 10%

Downwards:
1. CSI: NY: -20%
2. Happy Endings: -10%


LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, How I Met Your Mother, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0, Go On, Glee
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Emily Owens, M.D., Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
How I Met Your Mother- Renewed- December 21
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Go On- 100% (+15%)
Two and a Half Men- 95%
Raising Hope- 95%
Parks & Recreation- 75% (-5%)
                                                                
The Cleveland Show- 60%
The Neighbors- 60% 
Last Man Standing- 55% (+5%)
Malibu Country- 50% (+5%)
The New Normal- 45%
 The Mindy Project- 30%  (-5%)
                                                                  
Rules of Engagement- 25%
Community- 20%
Happy Endings- 15% (-10%)
Up All Night- 15%
 Whitney- 10%
Guys With Kids- 5% 
Ben & Kate- 1% 
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0%
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100%
Hawaii 5-0- 100%
Glee- 100% (+4%)
Revolution- 97% (+7%)
Castle- 92% (+2%)
Parenthood- 85% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
The Mentalist- 65%
Elementary- 65% (+10%)
Scandal- 65% (+15%)
Smash- 60%
Chicago Fire- 60%  (+10%)
Hart of Dixie- 55%
The Good Wife- 55% (+15%)
Nashville- 50% 
90210- 45%
Nikita- 40% (+5%)
                                                                    
CSI:NY- 30% (-20%)
Beauty and the Beast- 20% (-5%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- Canceled- November 28
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 28

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
What will CBS do? According to TV By the Numbers, CBS will cancel three of its fall dramas to make room for new ones.  They have already canceled Made in Jersey, and I have Vegas as a 5% chance of renewal.  My numbers, however, do not reflect that idea, as I think that it may try to expand its Thursday comedy block.  If CBS does so, it will have to cancel (at least) two more between The Mentalist (65% chance of renewal), Elementary (55% chance of renewal), CSI: NY (50% chance of renewal), and The Good Wife (40% chance of renewal).  All of those shows should hope that CBS does not go to 8 comedies.  However, if it does so, Two and a Half Men (95% chance), How I Met Your Mother (70% chance), and maybe even Rules of Engagement (25% chance) will be renewed.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. The Neighbors: +20%
2.Revolution: +15%
2. The Good Wife: +15%

Downwards:
1. Whitney: -55%
2. Malibu Country: -20%
3. Ben & Kate: -19%
4. The Mindy Project: -15%
4. Happy Endings: -15%
4. The Mentalist: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm, Bones, Hawaii 5-0
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100%
Suburgatory- 100%
Two and a Half Men- 95% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 95% (+10%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Parks & Recreation- 80% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
The Cleveland Show- 60% (+10%)
The Neighbors- 60% (+20%)
Last Man Standing- 50% (-5%)
Malibu Country- 45% (-20%)
The New Normal- 45%
 The Mindy Project- 35%  (-15%)
                                                                  
Happy Endings- 25% (-15%)
Rules of Engagement- 25% (+5%)
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15%
 Whitney- 10% (-55%)
Guys With Kids- 5% 
Ben & Kate- 1% (-19%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 0% (-10%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100%
Arrow- 100% 
CSI- 100%
Bones- 100% (+1%)
Hawaii 5-0- 100% (+5%)
Glee- 96% (+3%)
Castle- 90%
Revolution- 90% (+15%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 80% (+5%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
The Mentalist- 65% (-15%)
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
Nashville- 50% 
CSI:NY- 50%
Chicago Fire- 50% 
Scandal- 50% (+10%)
90210- 45% (-5%)
The Good Wife- 40% (+15%)
Nikita- 35%
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 25% (-10%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
Vegas- 5% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% 
Last Resort- Canceled- November 16
666 Park Avenue- Canceled- November 16
The Mob Doctor- Canceled- November 28
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 80% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Partners Canceled

CBS has finally decided to cancel its low-rated comedy, Partners.  It averaged a 2.07 rating in the six episodes that aired.  That rating is respectable on the surface, but the CBS comedy average is a 3.49 right now.  Granted, that number is brought up by the Thursday comedies.

The one questionable part of the move is the timing.  They should have either canceled it earlier and aired Rules of Engagement or waited to cancel it after its first 13 aired.  Instead, they will air Two and a Half Men repeats, from which I would not expect much better ratings.

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- November 13

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow, Chicago Fire, Nashville, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

FEATURED STORY:
Is Revolution really safe?  Over the last three weeks, it has dropped from a 3.3 to a 2.6 rating.  A 2.6 rating is still excellent for any show, especially for one at 10 PM.  However, Revolution is being boosted by The Voice (which averages a 4.61 rating for episodes that lead in to Revolution).  Revolution is currently fine, as the average of the other NBC Dramas is a 1.77, showing that Revolution could still fall significantly more and be safe, but the pace of the decline concerns me.  That is why I have dropped Revolution to a 75% chance of renewal this May.

BIGGEST MOVERS:
Upwards
1. Chicago Fire: +30%
2. CSI:NY: +25%
2. Grimm: +25%
4. Raising Hope: +20%
5. Up All Night: +15%

Downwards
1. Revolution: -24%
2. Vegas: -20%
2. Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23: -20%
4. Guys With Kids: -15%
4. Last Resort: -15%

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural, The Middle, Suburgatory, Arrow, CSI, Grimm
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice, Partners, The Mob Doctor, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: Up All Night (due to multi-camera transition)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100%
The Middle- 100% (+3%)
Suburgatory- 100% (+5%)
Go On- 85% (-5%)
Two and a Half Men- 85% (+10%)
Raising Hope- 85% (+20%)
Parks & Recreation- 75%
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Last Man Standing- 55% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 50%  (-10%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
The New Normal- 45% 
The Neighbors- 40% (+10%)
Happy Endings- 40% (+5%)
                                                                  
Ben & Kate- 20% 
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 15% (+15%)
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 10% (-20%)
Guys With Kids- 5% (-15%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18
Partners- Canceled- November 16



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
Revenge- 100%
Supernatural- 100%
Grimm- 100% (+25%)

Arrow- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 100% (+3%)

Bones- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 90% (+5%)
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Revolution- 75% (-24%)
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 55% (+5%)
90210- 50%
Nashville- 50% (+10%)
CSI:NY- 50% (+25%)
Chicago Fire- 50% (+30%)
Scandal- 40% (+10%)
Beauty and the Beast- 35% (+5%)
Nikita- 35% (+10%)
                                                                    
The Good Wife- 25%

Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%

Vegas- 5% (-20%)
Last Resort- 0% (-15%)
Emily Owens, M.D.- 0% (-10%)
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 22

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).


Week Four Top Five Winners: 
1. Two and a Half Men- Up 30% to 75% I get that some of its bump was due to Miley Cyrus being on the show.  But how many times have we seen a guest actor not do anything to help a show.  My guess is that the four-season rule may apply to the Kutcher episodes separately.
2. 90210- Up 25% to 50% On the CW, the numbers are so close together that predictions can change quickly.
3. Arrow- Up 19% to 99%  Arrow has officially dethroned The Vampire Dairies as the #1 CW show.  I am just hesitant to move a new show up to 100%.
4. Revolution- Up 14% to 99%  We recently saw that Revolution has excellent C3 ratings.  Furthermore, it saw a sharp increase last week.  If it holds up next week (it is preempted by the debate tonight), it may make the move to 100%
5. Raising Hope- Up 10% to 65% Ben & Kate's drops mean good news for Raising Hope.


Week Four Top Five Losers:
1. Nikita- Down 40% to 25% I know that most third-season shows get a fourth for syndication, but a 0.3 is just bad.  It will likely drop to a 0.2 by spring.  Imagine a rounded 0.0 in spring 2014!
2. Beauty and the Beast- Down 30% to 30%  It is never good news when a rookie show drops by nearly 50% in Week Two.
3. Ben & Kate- Down 25% to 20% I know that it was leading into the debate, but a 1.2 rating is pathetic. It will be lucky to air all of its 18 episodes.
4. Emily Owens, M.D.- Down 20% to 10% I had expected this one to do a little better than a 0.5 for its premiere.
5. Chicago Fire- Down 20% to 10% At this point, its only hope is that SVU's costs are getting too high.  Other than that, 13 episodes is its likely fate.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: 666 Park Avenue (but still has just a 1% chance)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100% (+2%)
The Middle- 97%
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% 
Parks & Recreation- 75%
Two and a Half Men- 75% (+30%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Raising Hope- 65% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 60%  (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 45% 
Happy Endings- 35%
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 30% (-5%)
Guys With Kids- 20% 
Ben & Kate- 20% (-25%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0%
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%

Revenge- 100% (+1%)
Supernatural- 100% (+5%)

Bones- 99%
Revolution- 99% (+14%)
Arrow- 99% (+19%)
CSI- 97% (-2%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 85%
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
90210- 50% (+25%)
Hart of Dixie- 50% (+5%)
Nashville- 40% (-5%)
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 30% (-30%)
Scandal- 30%
CSI:NY- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% 

Nikita- 25% (-40%)
Chicago Fire- 20% (-10%)

Last Resort- 15% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 10% (-20%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (+1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%