Monday, October 22, 2012

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 22


By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).


Week Four Top Five Winners: 
1. Two and a Half Men- Up 30% to 75% I get that some of its bump was due to Miley Cyrus being on the show.  But how many times have we seen a guest actor not do anything to help a show.  My guess is that the four-season rule may apply to the Kutcher episodes separately.
2. 90210- Up 25% to 50% On the CW, the numbers are so close together that predictions can change quickly.
3. Arrow- Up 19% to 99%  Arrow has officially dethroned The Vampire Dairies as the #1 CW show.  I am just hesitant to move a new show up to 100%.
4. Revolution- Up 14% to 99%  We recently saw that Revolution has excellent C3 ratings.  Furthermore, it saw a sharp increase last week.  If it holds up next week (it is preempted by the debate tonight), it may make the move to 100%
5. Raising Hope- Up 10% to 65% Ben & Kate's drops mean good news for Raising Hope.


Week Four Top Five Losers:
1. Nikita- Down 40% to 25% I know that most third-season shows get a fourth for syndication, but a 0.3 is just bad.  It will likely drop to a 0.2 by spring.  Imagine a rounded 0.0 in spring 2014!
2. Beauty and the Beast- Down 30% to 30%  It is never good news when a rookie show drops by nearly 50% in Week Two.
3. Ben & Kate- Down 25% to 20% I know that it was leading into the debate, but a 1.2 rating is pathetic. It will be lucky to air all of its 18 episodes.
4. Emily Owens, M.D.- Down 20% to 10% I had expected this one to do a little better than a 0.5 for its premiere.
5. Chicago Fire- Down 20% to 10% At this point, its only hope is that SVU's costs are getting too high.  Other than that, 13 episodes is its likely fate.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a TimeGrey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: 666 Park Avenue (but still has just a 1% chance)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100% (+2%)
The Middle- 97%
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% 
Parks & Recreation- 75%
Two and a Half Men- 75% (+30%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Raising Hope- 65% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 60%  (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 45% 
Happy Endings- 35%
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 30% (-5%)
Guys With Kids- 20% 
Ben & Kate- 20% (-25%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0%
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%

Revenge- 100% (+1%)
Supernatural- 100% (+5%)

Bones- 99%
Revolution- 99% (+14%)
Arrow- 99% (+19%)
CSI- 97% (-2%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 85%
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
90210- 50% (+25%)
Hart of Dixie- 50% (+5%)
Nashville- 40% (-5%)
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 30% (-30%)
Scandal- 30%
CSI:NY- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% 

Nikita- 25% (-40%)
Chicago Fire- 20% (-10%)

Last Resort- 15% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 10% (-20%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (+1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

1 comment:

  1. So far, nothing new that I like has been in a position to get the axe. With so many awesome shows available, I’m glad that I have sweatpants and DVR days to feed my TV need. I just had a friend that works with me at DISH talk me into getting a Hopper DVR to manage all of my TV schedule. It’s pretty cool to not have to worry about setting any timers for the big 4 channels’ PrimeTime; it auto-records them all with its PrimeTime Anytime feature. Now I just need to make time for shows like Arrow, apparently. Cheers to the exiting shows and the new ones taking their place.

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