2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 22

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, Arrow and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).


Week Four Top Five Winners: 
1. Two and a Half Men- Up 30% to 75% I get that some of its bump was due to Miley Cyrus being on the show.  But how many times have we seen a guest actor not do anything to help a show.  My guess is that the four-season rule may apply to the Kutcher episodes separately.
2. 90210- Up 25% to 50% On the CW, the numbers are so close together that predictions can change quickly.
3. Arrow- Up 19% to 99%  Arrow has officially dethroned The Vampire Dairies as the #1 CW show.  I am just hesitant to move a new show up to 100%.
4. Revolution- Up 14% to 99%  We recently saw that Revolution has excellent C3 ratings.  Furthermore, it saw a sharp increase last week.  If it holds up next week (it is preempted by the debate tonight), it may make the move to 100%
5. Raising Hope- Up 10% to 65% Ben & Kate's drops mean good news for Raising Hope.


Week Four Top Five Losers:
1. Nikita- Down 40% to 25% I know that most third-season shows get a fourth for syndication, but a 0.3 is just bad.  It will likely drop to a 0.2 by spring.  Imagine a rounded 0.0 in spring 2014!
2. Beauty and the Beast- Down 30% to 30%  It is never good news when a rookie show drops by nearly 50% in Week Two.
3. Ben & Kate- Down 25% to 20% I know that it was leading into the debate, but a 1.2 rating is pathetic. It will be lucky to air all of its 18 episodes.
4. Emily Owens, M.D.- Down 20% to 10% I had expected this one to do a little better than a 0.5 for its premiere.
5. Chicago Fire- Down 20% to 10% At this point, its only hope is that SVU's costs are getting too high.  Other than that, 13 episodes is its likely fate.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Mike & Molly, Revenge, Supernatural
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode), Animal Practice, Private Practice The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night
ROSE FROM THE DEAD: 666 Park Avenue (but still has just a 1% chance)


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed- October 16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100%
New Girl- 100%
Mike & Molly- 100% (+2%)
The Middle- 97%
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% 
Parks & Recreation- 75%
Two and a Half Men- 75% (+30%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Raising Hope- 65% (+10%)
The Mindy Project- 60%  (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 45% 
Happy Endings- 35%
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
The Neighbors- 30% (-5%)
Guys With Kids- 20% 
Ben & Kate- 20% (-25%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0%
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12
Animal Practice- Canceled- October 18



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%

Revenge- 100% (+1%)
Supernatural- 100% (+5%)

Bones- 99%
Revolution- 99% (+14%)
Arrow- 99% (+19%)
CSI- 97% (-2%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Castle- 85%
Blue Bloods- 80%
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
90210- 50% (+25%)
Hart of Dixie- 50% (+5%)
Nashville- 40% (-5%)
                                                                    
Beauty and the Beast- 30% (-30%)
Scandal- 30%
CSI:NY- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% 

Nikita- 25% (-40%)
Chicago Fire- 20% (-10%)

Last Resort- 15% 
Emily Owens, M.D.- 10% (-20%)
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (+1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Private Practice- Canceled / Final Season- October 19
Made in Jersey- Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- Renewed- October 22
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Renewals and Cancellations

I missed doing full posts on these, but there was some news in renewals and cancellations.

Renewed:
The X Factor (October 22)
Homeland (October 22)

Canceled:
Private Practice (October 19)

Animal Practice Canceled

Yesterday, NBC canceled Animal Practice.  The show became the second fall show to be canceled.  Wednesday night, it dropped to a 1.1 rating.  Whitney, the sophomore multi-camera comedy will replace it on November 14.

America's Next Top Model Renewed, but Moving to Summer

The CW has renewed its long-running reality show, America's Next Top Model for a 20th season.  The catch is that it will move to summer after the current season finishes airing.  The one-time-hit is now on its final legs, but I would not be surprised to see it eek out a couple more seasons in the summer.  I never thought that it would make it past season 19, but its ratings ticked up versus last spring.

For more, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/americas-next-top-model-renewed-by-the-cw-for-20th-cycle/153342/

Bob's Burgers Renewed for Season 4

FOX renewed Bob's Burgers for another season today.  So far this season, Bob's Burgers is averaging a 2.45 rating, which is up versus last year.  Now, I already consider this the fourth season, but as animation production cycles are weird, the "fourth season" will likely be part of the 2012-13 season and part of the 2013-14 season.  For a press release, please visit:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/bobs-burgers-renewed-by-fox-for-season-4/153331/

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 15

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

This was actually a very good week for TV.  You will see a lot more green than red.  But, how about Next Caller being canceled before even airing an episode.

Week Three Top Five Winners: 
1. Blue Bloods- Up 30% to 80% A week after being on the other list, Blue Bloods had a good week.  It did much better without Made in Jersey.  Furthermore, syndication economics work in its favor.
-2. Beauty and the Beast- Up 20% to 70% This is a simple case of a show premiering to much better numbers than I expected it to premiere to.  Granted, it had the strongest lead-in of any CW show in well over a year.
t-3. Supernatural- Up 15% to 95%  It rode its Arrow lead-in to a crack of the 1.0 barrier that CW shows seldom cross.
t-3. Go On- Up 15% to 90%  Here is another show that recovered from being on the other list last week.  It is clearly a lead-in dependent show, but there is no chance that NBC will cancel its #1 comedy.  As long as it stays above a 2.0, Go On is unquestionably safe.
t-3. CSI: NY- Up 15% to 25% My guess is that the producers will want to end it after ten seasons, but should they want to continue, a 1.4 rating is passable on Fridays, even on CBS.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
1. 90210- Down 35% to 25% If it premiered to a 0.4 rating, where will it go?  I am probably generous in giving it a one-in-four chance of surviving, but the CW could always give a final season.
2. Hart of Dixie- Down 15% to 45%  Hart of Dixie had an alarming 29% week-to-week drop last week.  Since a renewal likely would be a two-season renewal (shows with two full seasons are rarely canceled in their third), its ratings will really have to be solid.
t-3. Last Resort- Down 10% to 15% A 1.6 rating is not good, but it is in a very difficult timeslot.  Otherwise, it would be in almost as bad of shape as 666 Park Avenue.
t-3. Guys With Kids- Down 10% to 20% Guys With Kids dropped by two tenths last week.  If Whitney comes back on Wednesdays, I would expect Whitney to outrate it.
5. Up All Night- Down 5% to 0% Up All Night, just when it appeared to be picking up a little steam, delivered a downright ugly 1.1 rating.  It is currently broadcast TV's worst performing comedy.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode) The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night, Animal Practice, 666 Park Avenue


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed 10/16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100% (+1%)
New Girl- 100% (+10%)
Mike & Molly- 98%
The Middle- 97% (+2%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% (+15%)
Parks & Recreation- 75% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 55%  (+5%)
Raising Hope- 55% (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45%
The New Normal- 45% (+5%)
Ben & Kate- 45% (+5%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 20% (-10%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0% (-5%)
Animal Practice- 0% (-2%)
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Supernatural- 95% (+15%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 85% (+5%)
Arrow- 80% (+10%)
Blue Bloods- 80% (+30%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Beauty and the Beast- 70% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 45% (-15%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30%
90210- 25% (-35%)
CSI:NY- 25% (+15%)
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% (+10%)
Last Resort- 15% (-10%)
Private Practice- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Made in Jersey Canceled by CBS

Made in Jersey will go down with the dubious honor of being the first show canceled in the 2012-13 TV Season.  The show seemed like a classic 13-and-out show, but at the same time, did not have the markings of the season's first cancellation.  I think that The Mob Doctor should have gone first, but FOX did not want to be the first to cancel a show.

Undercover Boss will replace Made in Jersey on November 2, with repeats airing in the mean time.

What will be canceled next: Partners, The Mob Doctor, or Animal Practice?

For more, including the CBS press release, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/10/made-in-jersey-pulled-from-cbs-schedule-undercover-boss-returns-friday-november-2-at-8pm/152449/comment-page-3/#comments