Monday, October 15, 2012

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 15


By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

This was actually a very good week for TV.  You will see a lot more green than red.  But, how about Next Caller being canceled before even airing an episode.

Week Three Top Five Winners: 
1. Blue Bloods- Up 30% to 80% A week after being on the other list, Blue Bloods had a good week.  It did much better without Made in Jersey.  Furthermore, syndication economics work in its favor.
-2. Beauty and the Beast- Up 20% to 70% This is a simple case of a show premiering to much better numbers than I expected it to premiere to.  Granted, it had the strongest lead-in of any CW show in well over a year.
t-3. Supernatural- Up 15% to 95%  It rode its Arrow lead-in to a crack of the 1.0 barrier that CW shows seldom cross.
t-3. Go On- Up 15% to 90%  Here is another show that recovered from being on the other list last week.  It is clearly a lead-in dependent show, but there is no chance that NBC will cancel its #1 comedy.  As long as it stays above a 2.0, Go On is unquestionably safe.
t-3. CSI: NY- Up 15% to 25% My guess is that the producers will want to end it after ten seasons, but should they want to continue, a 1.4 rating is passable on Fridays, even on CBS.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
1. 90210- Down 35% to 25% If it premiered to a 0.4 rating, where will it go?  I am probably generous in giving it a one-in-four chance of surviving, but the CW could always give a final season.
2. Hart of Dixie- Down 15% to 45%  Hart of Dixie had an alarming 29% week-to-week drop last week.  Since a renewal likely would be a two-season renewal (shows with two full seasons are rarely canceled in their third), its ratings will really have to be solid.
t-3. Last Resort- Down 10% to 15% A 1.6 rating is not good, but it is in a very difficult timeslot.  Otherwise, it would be in almost as bad of shape as 666 Park Avenue.
t-3. Guys With Kids- Down 10% to 20% Guys With Kids dropped by two tenths last week.  If Whitney comes back on Wednesdays, I would expect Whitney to outrate it.
5. Up All Night- Down 5% to 0% Up All Night, just when it appeared to be picking up a little steam, delivered a downright ugly 1.1 rating.  It is currently broadcast TV's worst performing comedy.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a TimeGrey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode) The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night, Animal Practice, 666 Park Avenue


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed 10/16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100% (+1%)
New Girl- 100% (+10%)
Mike & Molly- 98%
The Middle- 97% (+2%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% (+15%)
Parks & Recreation- 75% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 55%  (+5%)
Raising Hope- 55% (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45%
The New Normal- 45% (+5%)
Ben & Kate- 45% (+5%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 20% (-10%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0% (-5%)
Animal Practice- 0% (-2%)
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Supernatural- 95% (+15%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 85% (+5%)
Arrow- 80% (+10%)
Blue Bloods- 80% (+30%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Beauty and the Beast- 70% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 45% (-15%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30%
90210- 25% (-35%)
CSI:NY- 25% (+15%)
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% (+10%)
Last Resort- 15% (-10%)
Private Practice- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

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