Today, we look at the first hour of Wednesday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: Survivor (seasons 25 and 26)
FOX: The X Factor (season 2); midseason: American Idol (season 12)
NBC: Animal Practice (season 1) / Guys With Kids (season 1)
ABC: The Middle (season 3) / The Neighbors (season 1)
CW: Arrow (season 1)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
Survivor: 3.35 (fall) / 2.83 (spring)
X Factor: 3.79
American Idol: 5.33
The Middle: 2.60
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. FOX- While American Idol is not the "death star" that it once was, FOX's singing shows continue to rate among the strongest on TV. Last season, The X Factor premiered to a 4.4, but that was considered a disappointment considering its hype. However, it averaged a solid 3.79 rating (but I weighed two hour and one and a half hour episodes equally). This year, there is more hype, as Britney Spears and Demi Lovato became judges. Due to that, I like X Factor to have a solid season, at a 3.71 rating (down 2%). American Idol is also shaking up its judges, but I am not sure that it will have the same effect. I do, however, not expect it to lose almost another third of its viewership this year and will give it a 4.00 rating (down 25%).
2. CBS- Survivor has aired 24 successful seasons on CBS. In fact, it holds the record for the most seasons aired by a primetime, broadcast entertainment program. However, last season was the first time that any episode dipped into the 2's, and the latter half of the season would not even sniff a 3.0! In fact the finale, which would normally spike to about a 4.0, only scored a 2.9. This year, the competition should be softer, as the other networks will be down. Also, casual fans like returning contestants (which the spring 2012 season lacked), and there will be all-stars on both seasons this year. It should still be in the decline mode for the fall (due to last spring's low numbers), but I think that this spring's season may be more appealing to the average viewer than last spring's. I will give Survivor a 3.02 (down 10%) in the fall and a 2.99 (up 6%) in the spring.
3. ABC- The Middle has been a solid lead-off show to a night with only one true superstar (Modern Family) for ABC. However, it lost 35% of its audience over the course of the season last year, which is more than that which can be accounted for by normal seasonal dips. I expect a rough season for The Middle, with a 2.04 (down 22%). I actually like The Neighbors to get a good sampling due to its 9:30 premiere in the post-Modern Family slot, but I expect that interest will quickly fade. I will give it a 22 episode order, with a 2.92 in the fall, but it will drop to a 1.38 by Daylight Savings Time.
4. NBC- I have little confidence in NBC's decision to start a comedy block without a veteran. What is worse is that the shows are not even compatible with one another. This has disaster written all over it. Animal Practice may wind up with a respectable average, like a 1.90 due to its post-Olympics premiere, but Guys With Kids will break a 1.5 only for its premiere and quickly fall to below a 1.0 before cancellation.
5. CW- Arrow does have a lot of hype, but this is the CW. The network is making a risky move by putting it without a lead-in (though local programming may actually have higher ratings than a CW show). I actually see this as a moderate success for the network (which will be down 30%+ as a whole), and I will give it a 0.48.
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
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