Today, we look at the first hour of Tuesday nights.
THE MATCHUP
CBS: NCIS (season 10)
FOX: Raising Hope (season 3) / Ben & Kate (season 1)
NBC: The Voice Results Show (seasons 3 and 4)
ABC: Dancing With the Stars Results Show (seasons 15 and 16) / I do not think that comedies will air here mideseason.
CW: Hart of Dixie (season 2)
2011-12 PROGRAM AVERAGES
NCIS: 3.75
Raising Hope: 2.15 (at 9:30)
The Voice: 3.48
Dancing With the Stars: 3.06 (fall) / 2.67 (spring)
Hart of Dixie: 0.64 (Mondays at 9:00)
2012-13 PROJECTIONS
1. CBS- NCIS has been one of the steadiest shows on TV over the last few years. In fact, its seventh, eighth, and ninth seasons are its best three in the ratings. Last year, it was down 6% vs. 2010-11, but it was at its strongest level when compared to the rest of broadcast primetime (at 159% of the average rating). I do like NCIS to take a slight dip this year, but I think that it will finish on top of Tuesday nights, averaging a 3.63 (down 3%).
2. NBC- NBC may be able to win the hour in the fall, but I think that The Voice will have a major downturn in the spring. Last year, it only aired results shows in the final six weeks, when the show was at its weakest level. On average, American Idol's results shows were 8% weaker than its preformance shows, and I think that The Voice could fare slightly better. I like it to get a 3.90 (up 12%) in the fall and a 2.85 (down 18% vs. Spring 2012 or down 27% vs. Fall 2012) in the spring.
3. ABC- Just look at the projected scores for DWTS Preformance Shows on my Mondays at 8:00 post to determine a base. From there, I project the results shows to be about 13% weaker based on its past two years (four seasons). Therefore, I give DWTS a 3.38 (up 10%) in the fall and a 2.61 (down 2%) in the fall.
4. FOX-FOX is trying comedies in the 8:00 hour this year. I do not expect this move to work. Raising Hope averaged a 2.15 rating last year at 9:30, where it had the cushy New Girl lead-in. I expect this season to be disaster for Raising Hope, which will average a 1.64 (down 24%). Ben & Kate should be DOA and average a 1.05 over the four episodes that I think it will air.
5. CW- Hart of Dixie had a really rough second half of the season last year (worse than those of most shows), but somehow managed to get renewed. While it has to lead off a night this year, the competition will not be quite as much. I still only like it to bounce up slightly (if at all) from its 0.5's and 0.6's of the spring this fall, and I think that it should go lower in the spring. I give it a 0.54 (down 16%).
All stats come from http://www.spottedratings.com.
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