America's Next Top Model Renewed, but Moving to Summer

The CW has renewed its long-running reality show, America's Next Top Model for a 20th season.  The catch is that it will move to summer after the current season finishes airing.  The one-time-hit is now on its final legs, but I would not be surprised to see it eek out a couple more seasons in the summer.  I never thought that it would make it past season 19, but its ratings ticked up versus last spring.

For more, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/americas-next-top-model-renewed-by-the-cw-for-20th-cycle/153342/

Bob's Burgers Renewed for Season 4

FOX renewed Bob's Burgers for another season today.  So far this season, Bob's Burgers is averaging a 2.45 rating, which is up versus last year.  Now, I already consider this the fourth season, but as animation production cycles are weird, the "fourth season" will likely be part of the 2012-13 season and part of the 2013-14 season.  For a press release, please visit:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/bobs-burgers-renewed-by-fox-for-season-4/153331/

2012-13 TV Renewal Odds- October 15

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

This was actually a very good week for TV.  You will see a lot more green than red.  But, how about Next Caller being canceled before even airing an episode.

Week Three Top Five Winners: 
1. Blue Bloods- Up 30% to 80% A week after being on the other list, Blue Bloods had a good week.  It did much better without Made in Jersey.  Furthermore, syndication economics work in its favor.
-2. Beauty and the Beast- Up 20% to 70% This is a simple case of a show premiering to much better numbers than I expected it to premiere to.  Granted, it had the strongest lead-in of any CW show in well over a year.
t-3. Supernatural- Up 15% to 95%  It rode its Arrow lead-in to a crack of the 1.0 barrier that CW shows seldom cross.
t-3. Go On- Up 15% to 90%  Here is another show that recovered from being on the other list last week.  It is clearly a lead-in dependent show, but there is no chance that NBC will cancel its #1 comedy.  As long as it stays above a 2.0, Go On is unquestionably safe.
t-3. CSI: NY- Up 15% to 25% My guess is that the producers will want to end it after ten seasons, but should they want to continue, a 1.4 rating is passable on Fridays, even on CBS.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
1. 90210- Down 35% to 25% If it premiered to a 0.4 rating, where will it go?  I am probably generous in giving it a one-in-four chance of surviving, but the CW could always give a final season.
2. Hart of Dixie- Down 15% to 45%  Hart of Dixie had an alarming 29% week-to-week drop last week.  Since a renewal likely would be a two-season renewal (shows with two full seasons are rarely canceled in their third), its ratings will really have to be solid.
t-3. Last Resort- Down 10% to 15% A 1.6 rating is not good, but it is in a very difficult timeslot.  Otherwise, it would be in almost as bad of shape as 666 Park Avenue.
t-3. Guys With Kids- Down 10% to 20% Guys With Kids dropped by two tenths last week.  If Whitney comes back on Wednesdays, I would expect Whitney to outrate it.
5. Up All Night- Down 5% to 0% Up All Night, just when it appeared to be picking up a little steam, delivered a downright ugly 1.1 rating.  It is currently broadcast TV's worst performing comedy.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA, 2 Broke Girls, New Girl
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, Next Caller (never aired an episode) The Mob Doctor, Partners, Up All Night, Animal Practice, 666 Park Avenue


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed- January, 2011
American Dad- Renewed- May, 2012
The Simpsons- Renewed- October, 2011
Family Guy- Renewed- May, 2012
Bob's Burgers- Renewed 10/16
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 100% (+1%)
New Girl- 100% (+10%)
Mike & Molly- 98%
The Middle- 97% (+2%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 90% (+15%)
Parks & Recreation- 75% (+5%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 55%  (+5%)
Raising Hope- 55% (+5%)
The Cleveland Show- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45%
The New Normal- 45% (+5%)
Ben & Kate- 45% (+5%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 20% (-10%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 0% (-5%)
Animal Practice- 0% (-2%)
Partners- 0% 
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season
Next Caller- Canceled (never aired an episode)- October 12



DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100%
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Supernatural- 95% (+15%)
Hawaii 5-0- 95%
Glee- 93%
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 85% (+5%)
Arrow- 80% (+10%)
Blue Bloods- 80% (+30%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75%
The Mentalist- 75%
Beauty and the Beast- 70% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% 
Hart of Dixie- 45% (-15%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30%
90210- 25% (-35%)
CSI:NY- 25% (+15%)
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 25% (+10%)
Last Resort- 15% (-10%)
Private Practice- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 0% (-1%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed- September 25
America's Next Top Model- Renewed- October 16, but moving to summer
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
Undercover Boss- 70% (+10%)
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Made in Jersey Canceled by CBS

Made in Jersey will go down with the dubious honor of being the first show canceled in the 2012-13 TV Season.  The show seemed like a classic 13-and-out show, but at the same time, did not have the markings of the season's first cancellation.  I think that The Mob Doctor should have gone first, but FOX did not want to be the first to cancel a show.

Undercover Boss will replace Made in Jersey on November 2, with repeats airing in the mean time.

What will be canceled next: Partners, The Mob Doctor, or Animal Practice?

For more, including the CBS press release, go to:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/10/made-in-jersey-pulled-from-cbs-schedule-undercover-boss-returns-friday-november-2-at-8pm/152449/comment-page-3/#comments

2012-13 TV Season Renewal Odds- October 8

By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

Week Two Top Four Winners (several shows are tied for #5): 
1. The Mentalist- Up 20% to 75% Despite a terrible rating, I bumped this up so much because there are strong rumors that CBS secretly renewed it during the summer,
t-2. The Cleveland Show- Up 15% to 50%  A 2.2 rating in the 7:30 timeslot without a football lead-in is very solid.  FOX may consider keeping the exact same animation lineup for 2013-14.
t-2. Ben & Kate- Up 15% to 40%  This is another bump-up due to external factors.  FOX showed it a major vote of confidence by giving it a full season.
t-2. Guys With Kids- Up 15% to 30%  Guys With Kids is surprisingly building on its Animal Practice lead-in.  Furthermore, it stayed steady in Week Two, although it may have been helped by the debate lead-out.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
t-1. Vegas- Down 20% to 15% A 2.0 in Week Two is unacceptable for an expensive freshman drama on a station like CBS.  It would be fine if it could maintain a 2.0, but that would surprise me very much.
t-2. Blue Bloods- Down 20% to 50%  Last week, I said that syndication would likely save it for one more year, but I did not expect it to drop to a 1.2 rating.  This show is truly on the bubble now.
3. 666 Park Avenue- Down 19% to 1% It would likely have the top spot for a second straight week if it had further to fall.  Instead, a 1.7 rating puts it on the verge of being "locked up".
4. Go On- Down 17% to 75% Yes, Go On received a full season order, but it decisively failed its test with a weaker Voice lead-in.  Should The Voice drop in the Battle Rounds, I would worry for Go On.
5. Elementary- Down 15% to 55% Elementary dropped by six ticks in Week Two despite having its POI lead in up a tenth.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, The Mob Doctor, Partners


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
Mike & Molly- 98%
Suburgatory- 95%
The Middle- 95% (-3%)
New Girl- 90% (+10%)
Bob's Burgers- 75% (+5%)
Go On- 75% (-17%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
Parks & Recreation- 70% (+5%)
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 50% 
Raising Hope- 50%
The Cleveland Show- 50% (+15%)
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45% (+5%)
The New Normal- 40% 
Ben & Kate- 40% (+15%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 30% (+15%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 5% (+2%)
Animal Practice- 2% (+1%)
Partners- 0% (-2%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95% (+5%)
Glee- 93% (+3%)
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 80%
Supernatural- 80% (+5%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75% (+10%)
The Mentalist- 75% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
Arrow- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Hart of Dixie- 60% (+10%)
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% (-15%)
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Blue Bloods- 50% (-20%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30% (+5%)
Last Resort- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 15% (-20%)
Private Practice- 10% (-10%)
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (-19%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

Renewal Odds for 2013-14- PREMIERE WEEK

Week One Top Five Winners: 
1. Bob's Burgers- Up 25% to 70%  Bob's Burgers displayed very solid premiere ratings.  It does not cost much to make and appears to be in good shape.
2. Grimm- Up 20% to 65%  I thought that Grimm may really struggle this year after I saw its Monday numbers.  However, its Friday premiere delivered solid-for-Friday numbers.
t-3. Grey's Anatomy- Up 15% to 100%  In what was a difficult premiere week for returning shows, Grey's Anatomy actually grew on its premiere numbers from a year ago.  Enough said.
t-3. Elementary- Up 15% to 70%  I never expected that Elementary would grow on its POI lead in.
t-5. The Neighbors (up 10% to 35%) and The Good Wife (up 10% to 25%).  The Good Wife's decision will come down to critical acclaim versus cost, while The Neighbors' fate will be more clear a week from now.

Week One Top Five Losers:
1.666 Park Avenue- Down 50% to 20%  I had expected 666 Park Avenue to be a very solid performer   Instead, it dropped big from its Revenge lead-in.
2.Two and a Half Men- Down 35% to 40%  A 3.5 may be great for most shows, but 2.5 Men is so expensive to produce.  Plus, it dropped 1.5 from its Big Bang lead in.
3. Animal Practice- Down 29% to 1%  Considering that it premiered after the Olympics (back in August), it should have been able to get more out of its first regular airing.  DOA.
4. Blue Bloods- Down 25% to 70%  Syndication should save it for one more year, but its premiere of a 1.5 was bad.
5. Partners- Down 23% to 2%  A 2.4 rating may be acceptable on any other network, but not CBS.  As CBS has Rules of Engagement, which should be good for a 3.0, ready, this is not long for the world.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and renewed in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a Time, Grey's Anatomy
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, The Mob Doctor, Made in Jersey
Demoted: Hawaii 5-0 (now 90%)

NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
The Middle- 98% (+8%)
Mike & Molly- 98% (-1%)
Suburgatory- 95%
Go On- 92% (-5%)
New Girl- 80%
Bob's Burgers- 70% (+25%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
Parks & Recreation- 65%
The Mindy Project- 50% (-5%)
Raising Hope- 50%
Last Man Standing- 45%
The New Normal- 40% (-10%)
Two and a Half Men- 40% (-35%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Cleveland Show- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% (+10%)
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Ben & Kate- 25%
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Guys With Kids- 15% (-3%)
Up All Night- 3% (+2%)
Partners- 2% (-23%)
Animal Practice- 1% (-29%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100% (+5%)
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100% (+15%)
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
NCIS: LA- 99% (+4%)
Revenge- 99%- (+4%)
Glee- 90%
Hawaii 5-0- 90% (-10%)
Revolution- 85% (+5%)
Castle- 80% (-5%)
Parenthood- 75%
Supernatural- 75%
Blue Bloods- 70% (-25%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70% (+5%)
Arrow- 70%
Elementary- 70% (+15%)
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Grimm- 65% (+20%)
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
The Mentalist- 55% (-5%)
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Hart of Dixie- 50%
Nashville- 45%
Vegas- 35% (-10%)
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Last Resort- 25%
The Good Wife- 25% (+10%)
Scandal- 25%
Private Practice- 20% (-20%)
666 Park Avenue- 20% (-50%)
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Made in Jersey- 0% (-20%)
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

The Voice Renewed for 2013-14

NBC has announced that it has renewed The Voice for seasons 4 and 5 (spring / fall 2013).  The Voice is the first reality show and the first NBC to be renewed to the 2013-14 season.  NBC, in its press release, gives no new information about who the coaches will be for Season 5 (they are already known for Season 4).

The Voice has been consistently scoring ratings well above a 4.0 this season, and (so far), it is TV's #1 entertainment show for 2012-13.  Its Monday episodes (assuming an adjustment of 0.1 in finals, as is customary), are averaging a whopping 4.43 rating.

For more information: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/25/the-voice-renewed-by-nbc-for-seasons-4-and-5/150211/