Monday, October 8, 2012

2012-13 TV Season Renewal Odds- October 8


By renewed, I mean that a show will be on the schedule for the 2013-14 season.  The fact that Go On, The New Normal, Revolution, Ben & Kate, and The Mindy Project have received full season orders does not signify a renewal.  However, last year, every show on the Big Four that did so was renewed (though that is not usually the case).

Week Two Top Four Winners (several shows are tied for #5): 
1. The Mentalist- Up 20% to 75% Despite a terrible rating, I bumped this up so much because there are strong rumors that CBS secretly renewed it during the summer,
t-2. The Cleveland Show- Up 15% to 50%  A 2.2 rating in the 7:30 timeslot without a football lead-in is very solid.  FOX may consider keeping the exact same animation lineup for 2013-14.
t-2. Ben & Kate- Up 15% to 40%  This is another bump-up due to external factors.  FOX showed it a major vote of confidence by giving it a full season.
t-2. Guys With Kids- Up 15% to 30%  Guys With Kids is surprisingly building on its Animal Practice lead-in.  Furthermore, it stayed steady in Week Two, although it may have been helped by the debate lead-out.


Week Two Top Five Losers:
t-1. Vegas- Down 20% to 15% A 2.0 in Week Two is unacceptable for an expensive freshman drama on a station like CBS.  It would be fine if it could maintain a 2.0, but that would surprise me very much.
t-2. Blue Bloods- Down 20% to 50%  Last week, I said that syndication would likely save it for one more year, but I did not expect it to drop to a 1.2 rating.  This show is truly on the bubble now.
3. 666 Park Avenue- Down 19% to 1% It would likely have the top spot for a second straight week if it had further to fall.  Instead, a 1.7 rating puts it on the verge of being "locked up".
4. Go On- Down 17% to 75% Yes, Go On received a full season order, but it decisively failed its test with a weaker Voice lead-in.  Should The Voice drop in the Battle Rounds, I would worry for Go On.
5. Elementary- Down 15% to 55% Elementary dropped by six ticks in Week Two despite having its POI lead in up a tenth.

LOCK 'EM UP (New additions in italics and official in bold):
GOOD (100%)- The Big Bang Theory, American Dad, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Voice, Modern Family, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Person of Interest, The Vampire Diaries, Survivor, The Amazing Race, America's Funniest Home Videos, Shark Tank, Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, The X Factor, Once Upon a TimeGrey's Anatomy, NCIS: LA
BAD (0%)-30 Rock, The Office, Gossip Girl, Fringe, Made in Jersey, The Mob Doctor, Partners


NOTE: For new shows, only fall premieres will be in this.
COMEDIES
The Big Bang Theory- Renewed
American Dad- Renewed
The Simpsons- Renewed
Family Guy- Renewed
Modern Family- 100%
2 Broke Girls- 99%
Mike & Molly- 98%
Suburgatory- 95%
The Middle- 95% (-3%)
New Girl- 90% (+10%)
Bob's Burgers- 75% (+5%)
Go On- 75% (-17%)
How I Met Your Mother- 70%
Parks & Recreation- 70% (+5%)
                                                                
Malibu Country- 65%
Whitney- 65%
The Mindy Project- 50% 
Raising Hope- 50%
The Cleveland Show- 50% (+15%)
Last Man Standing- 45%
Two and a Half Men- 45% (+5%)
The New Normal- 40% 
Ben & Kate- 40% (+15%)
Happy Endings- 35%
The Neighbors- 35% 
                                                                  
Don't Trust the B- in Apt. 23- 30%
Guys With Kids- 30% (+15%)
Rules of Engagement- 20%
Community- 20%
Up All Night- 5% (+2%)
Animal Practice- 2% (+1%)
Partners- 0% (-2%)
30 Rock- Final Season
The Office- Final Season




DRAMAS
Criminal Minds- 100%
Once Upon a Time- 100%
NCIS- 100%
Person of Interest- 100%
The Vampire Diaries- 100%
Grey's Anatomy- 100%
NCIS: LA- 100% (+1%)
CSI- 99%
Bones- 99%
Revenge- 99%
Hawaii 5-0- 95% (+5%)
Glee- 93% (+3%)
Revolution- 85% 
Castle- 80%
Supernatural- 80% (+5%)
Parenthood- 75%
Grimm- 75% (+10%)
The Mentalist- 75% (+20%)
Law & Order: SVU- 70%
Arrow- 70%
                                                              
Nikita- 65%
Hart of Dixie- 60% (+10%)
90210- 60%
Smash- 60%
Elementary- 55% (-15%)
Beauty and the Beast- 50%
Blue Bloods- 50% (-20%)
Nashville- 45%
                                                                    
Chicago Fire- 30%
Emily Owens, M.D.- 30%
Scandal- 30% (+5%)
Last Resort- 25%
The Good Wife- 25%
Vegas- 15% (-20%)
Private Practice- 10% (-10%)
CSI:NY- 10%
Touch- 10%
Body of Proof- 5%
666 Park Avenue- 1% (-19%)
The Mob Doctor- 0%
Gossip Girl- Final Season
Fringe- Final Season
Made in Jersey- Officially Canceled- October 10



REALITY
The Voice- Renewed
Survivor- 100%
The Amazing Race- 100%
America's Funniest Home Videos- 100%
Shark Tank- 100%
Dancing With the Stars- 100%
American Idol- 100%
The X Factor- 100%
The Bachelor- 99%
The Biggest Loser- 90%
What Would You Do- 85%
The Celebrity Apprentice- 80%
                                                                       
Kitchen Nightmares- 65%
Undercover Boss- 60%
America's Next Top Model- 60%
The Biggest Loser- 55%
COPS- 50%
Betty White's Off Their Rockers- 40%
Wife Swap- 35%
                                                                          
Fashion Star- 30%

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